McDonald's Corporation (McDonald's), incorporated on December 21, 1964, operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants. The Company's restaurants serve a locally relevant menu of food and drinks sold at various price points in over 100 countries. The Company's segments include U.S., International Lead Markets, High Growth Markets and Foundational Markets and Corporate. McDonald's franchised restaurants are owned and operated under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license or affiliate. The Company is primarily a franchisor. Under a conventional franchise arrangement, the Company owns the land and building or secures a long-term lease for the restaurant location and the franchisee pays for equipment, signs, seating and decor.
The U.S. segment focuses on offering a platform for authentic ingredients that allows customers to customize their sandwiches. Its High Growth Markets segment includes its operations in markets, such as China, Italy, Korea, Poland, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, the Netherlands and related markets. The International Lead markets segment includes the Company's operations in various markets, such as Australia, Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and related markets. McDonald's High Growth markets are focused on creating customer excitement through menu, promotions and value, and implementing a digital strategy with specific mobile solutions and actions. The Foundational markets and Corporate segment is engaged in operating restaurants and increasing convenience to customers, including through drive-thru and delivery.
INVESTMENT CASE
MCDonald Corp stock price has rose about 40 percent since the beginning of 2017. This is reflected by the company's change in managing their restaurant. The company has been restructuring their capital by shares repurchase. And they also have been doing refranchising to increase their profitability from franchise revenues instead of restaurant revenues. This is due to the high costs occured when operating own restaurant. The analyst's fair value for the firm is … Given the high trend towards healthy food, the management of MCDonald has considered to use fresh meat instead of frozen meat. The policy will be implemented next year on March 2018. Analyst believe this could be a catalyst to the stock price due to higher demand of healthy food. On the stock price diagram, the trend is showing an upward direction. Analyst believe there still be a strong momentum of the upward movements although some ratios show that the price are more expensive than the industry on average. This is because the ratios do not show the succesful measure of the company's policy on asset repurchase and refranchising.
CATALYSTS
The analyst believe that a healthy growth on the economy combined with investors expectation on the growth on the company will result in a higher earnings and future share prices.
RISKS
Since the company operates worldwide, it is exposed to the foreign currencies translation risks. It is shown that the revenue on 2015 and 2016 were down by …% where in fact they increased in constant currency. The company has taken some measure on this risk exposure by purchasing goods and services in local currencies and hedging certain foreign-denominated cash flows. On the other hand, being exposed by multinational debt, the company manage the risk on different currencies of debt by purchasing the debt in the national market it operates. For interest rate risks, the company has been using swaps and derivatives, also debt repurchasing to manage them. The other possibility of risk is the demand shocks due to financial crisis. But this risk doesnt contribute significantly to the restaurant industry as food is a primary good. There is substantial risk on the company's operation due to the debt amount it issued. But this risk is not so remarkable as they have the ability to meet their obligatio. Moreover, the company have been managing against the interest rate and credit risk.
Current price (29 Nov 17, US$) Target price (US$)
Market cap. (US$ m)
*target price is for Jan 2018
170 – –
Mc Donald's Corp NYSE: MCD
173.15 USD 0.26 (0.15%)
177 173 169 165
Open 173.05 High 173.54 Low 172.51
Mkt cap 140.25B P/E ratio
Div yield 2.33
Financial and Valuation Metrics
Year 2016 Revenue 24621.9 EBITDA 9261 ROIC
P/E 26.55 EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield
Net Debt
2017F 2018F
The analyst has performed valuation on the company on the basis of certain assumptions. Mostly the objects in the income statement are forecasted using CAGR method an exception for the general and administrative expense which is a precentage of the restaurant revenues. This is because the company doesnt have any new policies on their restaurant to be implemented yet that may change the modelling assumptions. To compute the firm's value, discounted cash flow model is used. And the analyst has also performed the sensitivity analysis of the stock price to investors required rate of return. This will result in a possibility of the decrease in price. Knowing that this is a risky investment, Investors should know that and use this research report only as parts of their decisions making. The analyst will not bear any cost of losing in the investment.
MCDonald Corporation (MCD) FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Income Statement (US$ m)
Revenues
Franchised Royalties Restaurant Sales
Total Revenue
Operating Expenses
Selling General and Administrative Expenses Other Operating (Income)/Expense – Net Personnel Expenses
Food And Beverage Costs
Occupancy & Other Operating Expenses Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income
Other Non-Operating Expense (Income) – Net Interest Expense
Income Before Income Taxes
Income Tax Expense (Benefit)
Loss (Gain) On Sale of Investments
Net Income
Balance Sheet (US$ m)
Current Assets
Cash and Equivalents
Inventories 110
Cash Flow Statement (US$ m) Cash From Operating Activities
Prepaid Expenses and Other Assets Held For Sale
Accounts and Notes Receivable
Total Current Assets
Noncurrent Assets
Property Plant & Equipment – Gross Accumulated Depreciation
Property Plant & Equipment – Net Investment In Affiliates/Joint Ventures Goodwill
Other Noncurrent Assets
Total Assets
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable – Trade
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt Accrued Expenses and Other Interest Accrued/Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Income Taxes Accrued/Payable
Total Current Liabilities
Non Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Deferred Income Taxes (Liabilities) Other Noncurrent Liabilities
Stockholder Equity
Preferred Stock
Common Stock
Additional Paid In Capital
Treasury Stock (Amount)
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit) Par Value
Treasury Shares (Number)
Shares Issued
Total Shareholders Equity
Shares Authorized
Total Liabilities and Shareholders Equity
In 2016, the company returned $14.2 billion to shareholders through shares repurchased and dividends paid. In 2015, the Company's Board of Directors approved a $15 billion share repurchase program which is effective by the start of 2016. This means there still be a need for repurchasing shares amounted $3 billion.
2014A
9272 18169.3 27441.3
2487.9 18.6 4756 6129.7 6099.9 19492.1 7949.2 0.8 576.4 7372 2614.2 0 4757.8
783.2 0 1214.4 4185.5
39126.1 14568.6 24557.5
1004.5 2735.3 1744.6
34227.4
860.1 — 1157.3 233.7 330 166.8 2747.9
14935.7 1624.5 2065.9
0 16.6 6239.1 -35177.1 -1519.7 43294.5 0.01 697.7 1660.6 12853.4 3500 34227.4
2015A 2016A
8924.7 9326.9 16488.3 15295 25413 24621.9
2434.3 2384.5 209.4 75.7 4400 4134.2 5552.2 4896.9 5671.6 5386.1 18267.5 16877.4 7145.5 7744.5 -48.5 -6.3 638.3 884.8 6555.7 6866 2026.4 2179.5 0 0 4529.3 4686.5
7685.5 1223.4 100.1 58.9 558.7 565.2
0 1527 1298.7 1474.1 9643 4848.6
37692.4 34443.4 14574.8 13185.8 23117.6 21257.6
792.7 725.9 2516.3 2336.5 1869.1 1855.3
37938.7 31023.9
874.7 756 0 77.2 1378.8 1159.3 233.1 247.5 309 961.1 154.8 267.2 2950.4 3468.3
24122.1 25878.5 1704.3 1817.1 2074 2064.3
0 0 16.6 16.6 6533.4 6757.9 -41176.8 -52108.6 -2879.8 -3092.9 44594.5 46222.7 0.01 0.01 753.8 841.3 1660.6 1660.6 7087.9 -2204.3 3500 3500 37938.7 31023.9
2017E
2015 2016
2077.9
341.1 -1813.9 — -140.6 193.4 -1420
-3230.3 589.7 10220 -1054.5 -246.8 -58.7 1985.4 640.8 317.2 5607.6 -6099.2 7685.5 2077.9 51.1 735.3
975.6 -1821.1 — -109.5 -26.6 -981.6
-3058.2 -286.2 3779.5 -822.9 -103.7 -3 2387.5 873.5 299.4 -6288.1 -11171 1223.4 7685.5 0 -11262.4
Net Income – CF
Depreciation And Amortization – CF
Deferred Income Taxes – CF
Stock Based Compensation
Other Non-Cash Items
Change in Inventories
Change in Accounts Payable
Change in Accounts Receivable
Change in Accrued Expenses
Change in Income Taxes Payable (Receivable)
Impairments —
Total Cash Flows From Operations
Gain (Loss) On Sale of Investments and Mkt Sec
Cash From Investing Activities
Disposal of Fixed Assets
Capital Expenditures
Proceeds From Long-Term Investments Acquisition of Business
Other Investing Activities
Total Cash Flows From Investing
Cash from Financing Activities
Dividends Paid
Increase (Decrease) Short-Term Borrowings -Net Increase In Long-Term Borrowings
Decrease In Long-Term Borrowings
Effect of Exchange Rates On Cash
Other Financing Activities
Cash Paid For Taxes
Cash Paid For Interest
Exercise of Stock Options
Net Change In Cash
Purchase of Treasury Stock
Cash and Cash Equivalents (End of Period)
Cash and Cash Equivalents (Beg of Period)
Tax Benefit From Stock Options – Financing Total Cash Flows From Financing
Share Repurchase and Dividens
4529.3 4686.5 1555.7 1516.5 -1.4 -538.6 110 131.3 177.6 96.9 44.9 28.1 -15 89.8 -180.6 -159 383 38.4 -64.4 169.7 — 6059.6 —
6539.1 —
MCDonald Corporation (MCD)
FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS
GROWTH RATIOS 1 Year Growth
PROFITABILITY RATIOS Returns
Return on Common Equity Return on Assets
Return on Capital
Return on Invested Capital
Margins
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Operating Margin
Incremental Operating Margin Pretax Margin
Income before XO Margin
Net Income Margin
Net Income to Common Margin
Additional
Effective Tax Rate
Dvd Payout Ratio Sustainable Growth Rate
FY 2014 FY 2015
Revenue -2.4 -7.4 EBITDA -7.3 -9.3
FY 2016
-3.1 6.4 8.4 3.5
13.3 13.3 14.8
4.9
13.5 -41.2 -8.0 -18.2 48.3 -79.4 -10.7 -13.6 — 7.6 — -23.9 —
-7.3 0.4 — -10.3 -4.5 -6.3
FY 2014 FY 2015
33.0 45.4 13.4 12.6 17.7 16.8 17.6 16.6
38.1 38.5 35.0 34.2 29.0 28.1
-122.7 -39.6 26.9 25.8 17.3 17.8 17.3 17.8 17.3 17.8
35.5 30.9 67.6 71.3 10.7 13.0
FY 2016
— 13.6 19.3 19.1
41.4 37.6 31.5
— 27.9 19.0 19.0 19.0
31.7 65.3 —
Operating Income
Net Income to Common
EPS Diluted
EPS Diluted before XO
EPS Diluted before Abnormal Dividend per Share
Accounts Receivable Inventory
Fixed Assets
Total Assets
Modified Working Capital Working Capital Employees
Accounts Payable Short-Term Debt Total Debt
Total Equity Capital
Book Value per Share
Cash From Operations Capital Expenditures Net Change In Cash Free Cash Flow
Cash Flow to Firm Free Cash Flow to Firm
-9.3 -10.1 -14.8 -4.8 -13.2 -0.4 -13.2 -0.4 -13.2 2.9
5.1 4.9
-8.0 6.9 -11.1 -9.0 -4.6 -5.9 -6.5 10.8 29.9 12.9 -23.5 365.5 — 0.0 -20.8 1.7 — — 5.7 61.5 -19.7 -44.9 -7.8 12.3 -17.4 -41.4
-5.5 -2.8 -8.5 -29.8 — — -3.5 13.9 -5.0 -1.7 -2.8 14.3
Profitability Ratios Showing Good Signs
The ROCE has increased in FY15 to 45% while it doesn't has a meaningful explanation in FY16. ROA decreased in 2015 which is affected by extra cash from financing and partially offsetted by the sale in fixed assets. Then, the ratio bounced back to 14% in FY16 due to higher shares being repurchased and higher amount of sale in fixed assets. All margins increased in 2015 indicating the successfull of the company's policy in reducing their costs from refranchising their owned restaurants.
2017E 2016A 2015A 2014A
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Revenue growth has been decreasing at a fluctuatuing rate. On the other hand, EBITDA in 2016 increased by 6.4% accompanied with operating income increase of 8.4 %. The EPS Diluted has increased by 13.3% resulting from both rising operating income and declining amount of shares. On the other hand, Dividend per Share is held constant at 4.9% although the amount of dividend distributed is lower in 2016, indicating higher investment being plowbacked into the business. Accounts Receivable has increased by 13.5 percent while Account Payable decreased by 13.6 percent. This is crucial to the company because both of them indicate a reduction in Company's cash flows. Total Debt increased 61.5% in 2015 due to financing needs for shares repurchasing and decreased by 7.6% in 2016. The company also has reduced the amount of equity by 44.9% in 2015 by repurchasing their own shares. Total debt increased by 60 percent in 2015 following shares repurchasing policy and decreased by 8 percent in 2016. The company has been spending more on
The Company's revenues consist of sales by Company owned restaurant and fees from restaurants operated by franchises. The company continues to accelerate the pace of refranchising to optimize its restaurant ownership mix, generate more stable and predictable revenue and cash flow streams, and operate with a less resource- intensive structure. In 2016, net income increased 3% partially due to stronger operating performance and higher gains on sales of restaurant businesses, mostly in the US. In 2015, net income decreased by 5%. This is resulted from the foreign currency translation and partially benefited from higher franchise margins and a gain on strategic sale of a restaurant property in the US.
MCDonald Corporation (MCD) LIQUIDITY RATIOS
FY 2014
Cash Ratio 0.8 Current Ratio 1.5 Quick Ratio 1.2 CFO/Avg Current Liab 2.3 Common Equity/Total Assets 37.6
Long-Term Debt/Equity 116.2 Long-Term Debt/Capital 53.8 Long-Term Debt/Total Assets 43.6
Total Debt/Equity 116.2 Total Debt/Capital 53.8 Total Debt/Total Assets 43.6
CFO/Total Liabilities 31.5 CFO/CapEx 2.6
Total Line of Credit 2,500.0 Total Available Line Of Credit 2,500.0 Total Credit Lines Drawn 0.0
Total Commercial Paper Outstanding 200.0 Cash From Operations -2.8 Capital Expenditures -29.8 Net Change In Cash — Free Cash Flow 13.9 Cash Flow to Firm -1.7 Free Cash Flow to Firm 14.3
Increasing Liquidity Risks Need to Be Managed
WORKING CAPITAL RATIOS
Accounts Receivable Turnover Days Sales Outstanding
Inventory Turnover
Days Inventory Outstanding
Accounts Payable Turnover Accounts Payable Turnover Days
Cash Conversion Cycle Inventory to Cash Days Total Inventory
CREDIT RATIOS
Short-Term Debt Long Term Debt
Total Debt/T12M EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA
Total Debt/EBIT Net Debt/EBIT
EBITDA to Interest Expense EBITDA-CapEx/Interest Expense EBIT to Interest Expense
EBITDA/Cash Interest Paid EBITDA-CapEx/Cash Interest Paid EBIT/Cash Interest Paid
Cash Interest Paid Interest Expense
Common Equity/Total Assets Long-Term Debt/Equity Long-Term Debt/Capital Long-Term Debt/Total Assets
Total Debt/Equity
Total Debt/Capital Total Debt/Total Assets
Net Debt/Equity Net Debt/Capital
FY 2014
21.7
16.9 145.4 2.5 17.4 20.9
-1.6 19.4 110.0
FY 2014
0 14935.7
1.5568 1.3402
1.8789 1.6175
16.6442 11.8577 13.7911
16.7371 12.2301 13.8681
573.2 576.4
37.553 116.2004 53.7466 43.6367
116.2004 53.7466 43.6367
100.0342 50.0086
FY 2015
20.2
18.0 148.7 2.5 18.0 20.3
0.2 20.5 100.1
FY 2015
0 24122.1
2.7723 1.889
3.3758 2.3003
13.6318 10.6335 11.1946
13.5787 10.748 11.1509
640.8 638.3
18.6825 340.3279 77.2897 63.5818
340.3279 77.2897 63.5818
231.8966 69.8701
FY 2016
17.8
20.6 181.3 2.0 17.6 20.8
1.9 22.6 58.9
FY 2016
77.2 25878.5
2.8027 2.6706
3.3515 3.1935
10.4668 8.3416 8.7528
10.6022 8.5173 8.8661
873.5 884.8
-7.1052 — 108.9557 83.4147
— 109.2807 83.6636
— 109.7847
The cash ratio increased in 2015 followed by a decrease in 2016. Higher cash ratio in 2015 was due to higher current assets in the form of cash and cash equivalents partly offsetted by higher current liabilities. In financial year 2015, the company increased their leverage to finance the planned shares repurchasing. Higher cash flow from financing and operations causes the company to have extra cash and cash equilvalents in the end of FY 2015. The current and quick ratio shown the same sign as the cash ratio. The Debt to Equity ratio increased in 2015 as a result of repurchasing. debt to capital ratios has been increasing continiously for 3 years indicating a riskier state of the firm. Although these ratios shown that the firm operation is getting riskier, the analys believes that this is crucial to the move of getting higher profitability in the future. Moreover, the firm manage their credit risks by debt refinancing and able to do it due to the reputation and size they have. On the other hand, interest rate risks is managed by using interest rate swaps and… The firm Line of Credit has been constant for 3 years indicating they still have liquidity source from these Line of Credit. There might need some improvement in their cash flow though by decreasing the collection period of their receivables.
EBITDA 9593.7
EBITDA-CapEx 7010.3
EBIT 7949.2
The credit ratios indicate an increase in the riskiness of the firm's operation. Assuming the firm keep refinancing the debt and hedge the risks against interest rate volatility, it should have no impact on the operation of the firm. Note that the interest coverage ratios are mostly higher than 10 during the 3 financial years. This implies the firm has enough resources to pay its' obligations on debt.
FY 2015 FY 2016
2.6 0.4 3.3 1.4 3.1 0.8 2.3 1.9
18.7 -7.1
340.3 — 77.3 109.0 63.6 83.4
340.3 — 77.3 109.3 63.6 83.7
21.2 18.2 3.6 3.3
2,500.0 2,500.0 2,500.0 2,500.0
0.0
869.6 -7.3 0.4 — -10.3 -4.5 -6.3
0.0 799.8
8701.2 6887.3 7145.5
9261 7439.9 7744.5
MCDonald Corporation (MCD) COMPARABLE ANALYSIS
COMPARABLE RATIOS
MCDonald Corp 134.76 Sonic Corp 1 Wendy's Co/The 3.38 Yum! Brands Inc 26.7 Jack in The Box Inc 2.98 Restaurant Brand International 30.54
MCDonald Corp has the biggest market cap and has a lower P/E ratio relative to the peers average. This indicate the price investor pay for the company's earnings is cheaper than average.
26.55 19.62 35.88 28.13 22.62 39.23
Market Data Company Name Price Market Cap US$/share (US$ m)
TEV (US$ m)
SALES (US$ m)
Financial Data EBITDA
(US$ m)
EBIT (US$ m)
Earnings (US$ m)
EV/Sales x
Valuation
EV/EBITDA EV/EBIT P/E
x x x
Average 33.23 28.67 Median
MCDonald Corporation (MCD) INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
INDUSTRY VALUE GROWTH YOY
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
0
US Restaurant Industry Sales
500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
50 0
US FOOD CPI
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The restaurant industry sales in US has shown a strong results in the past 10 years. The trend is increasing. This indicate an increase in the consumer confidence in the US economy. The forecasted US Restaurant sales for 2017 is $800 billion, an increase of …% compared to the 2016 result. On the other hand, the CPI index in food is approximately constant from 2014-2016. Thus, the increase of the sales in the past 3 years is partially contributed by the constant inflation on consumer goods and strong economic outlook favoring higher consumer expenditures. During the crisis of 2008, The US Restaurant industry sales were held a bit lower. Therefore the event of crisis doesn't contribute significantly on the industry since food is a primary needs of human life.
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100
MCD.US
13 8 3 -2
MACD
The graph on the right shows the historical stock price movement for the last 12 months. The analyst believe that the bull trend will continue further. The EMA12 denoted by the dotted red line is above the EMA26 (dotted green line). This indicates a strong upward movement of MCD share price. At the same time, the momentum indicator MACD shows a possibility of achieving higher momentum on the bull.
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2017*