The purpose of this assignment is to explore if Brexit is a step towards the break of the European Union or a trigger for close integration among the remaining member of states. The European Union (EU) was established in order to prevent the horrors of modern warfare, experienced by most of Europe during the World Wars of the 20th century, from ever ensuing again, by aiming to create an environment of trust with the countries of Europe cooperating in areas such as commerce, research and trade (Adams, 2001). The United Kingdom joined the EU in 1973 and according to George, (1998) the UK remained an ‘awkward partner’. Additionally, due to this awkward partnership, the relations and interaction between the UK and EU have always remained unique, for example, the UK has remained one of the only EU member states to sustain their own currency and refusing to adopt the Euro which is shared among most European states. Nonetheless, since joining in 1973 the EU has always been an issue for some British citizens, therefore for many to move towards a break away from the European Union may have not been as shocking. On 23rd of June 2016, the Prime Minister at that time David Cameron held a referendum to fulfil a 2015 manifesto pledge which his conservative party had made during the general elections. The referendum sent the citizens of the United Kingdom (UK) to polls to decide on whether Britain should remain in, or leave, the European Union (EU). The referendum still went ahead despite David Cameron having argued in 2012 that a wide support for the UK’s EU membership is necessary and may be gauged through a referendum (Kettle, 2016). The poles vote resulted in a 51.89 per cent majority to leave, the results stunned many including David Cameron, the British public, the major political parties, the polling organisations, the media, and as well as the whole of EU. The vote results showed most striking cleavages that appeared long before the referendum and it also showed the apparent divisions the urban/rural vote and in the devolved regions, for example in London majority of voters voted to remain within the European Union. (British Election Study 2016; Goodwin & Heath 2016).
Following the shocking results of the referendum David Cameron who had voted to remain, resigned shortly after as Prime Minister of the UK and was succeeded by Theresa May. However, Theresa May too like Cameron had voted to remain. Nonetheless due to her new appointment as Prime Minister she had to honour the poles result and, emphasised on numerous occasions that the UK will leave the EU (Watts, 2016). Therefore, Theresa May invoked Article 50 on 29 March 2017 by notifying the EU Council President Donald Tusk of the UK’s intention to leave the EU (HM Government 2017b).
Brexit has brought a division in beliefs on how it will shape both the future of the UK and EU. The minority believes that Brexit will be good for the UK and EU. Whilst the common theme in most people is that Brexit will bring hardships both in the UK and EU. Other people wait to see how the agreed Brexit withdrawal deal and negotiations will shape out. For the purpose of this assignment, I will firstly look at whether Brexit will trigger the break-up of EU. It is feared that post-Brexit the European Union will cease to exist with many authors agreeing and disagreeing on the matter. Authors such as Nicolaïdis, (2017) are somewhat sceptical of the idea that the EU can continue in its present form, arguing that flexibility, differentiation and opt-outs must become the new norm, since ‘a mosaic EU is more appealing than pushing half of its states to the brink of exit’. Gillingham, (2016) agrees stating that she is particularly unconvinced about the EU’s viability, arguing that ‘Europhoric values’ are not enough, and that the Commission and other institutions are too discredited to take a leadership role, meaning the only way forward is for a (difficult to imagine) consensus between the 27 post Brexit Member States
When it comes to Brexit many people have mainly focused on the implications for the UK, however, it also is important to reflect on the possible implications of Brexit for European integration more generally. According to Cini & Pérez-Solórzano, (2016) the challenges that Brexit brings is that it is not ‘the only game in town’, but rather one of several ‘crises’ that have been ailing the EU, and which will also affect European integration. The implications that have been discussed about the UK withdrawing from the EU include many areas that have been intertwined over the past decades such as immigration, the single market, politics, economic life, agriculture, criminal justice, judicial law and technology only to mention a few. I believe these factors raised will also have an impact on the EU, as well as refugees crossing into EU countries, Putin’s shadow over the Baltics, a threatening new eurozone debt crisis, the USA president threatening to undermine NATO and the new growing support for populist anti-European parties.
Britain’s decision to leave the European Union may have caused the uproar which may have triggered what seems to be a breakdown of the European Union as an establishment and as an economy. Britain being one of the European Union’s biggest economy and now set to leave the EU may trigger remaining states to feel vulnerable in remaining in the European establishment. Merritt, (2016) goes on to say that prior to the referendum, it was feared that the Brexit could create a precedent for many other EU countries and catalyse the dissolution of the EU.
The UK ranks among the EU’s three largest trading partners as well as a significant contributor to financing the budget of the EU thus, accounting for 13% of trade in goods, services and almost £1 billion of British money given to the EU is spent on international aid. Owen, (2004) stats that the decision of the UK to leave the EU is significantly going to affect budget financing of the EU, which will ultimately have great repercussions on international aid and other support and help to other parts of the world.
Therefore, it is also important to recognise that Brexit is likely to affect not only the United Kingdom but also the rest of the European Union economy through a variety of transmission channels, primarily trade, uncertainty, migration and investment. According to Charter, (2016) the implications of the Brexit referendum cannot be restricted to the UK only.
With the government potentially not willing to sign up to the Brexit deal, this has heightened uncertainty in the United Kingdom and brings forth many questions that many political and scholars have no answers to, as well as the other EU Member States. Hence this has brought a slowdown in investment decisions either by causing their cancellation or by delaying them while waiting for uncertainty to diminish (European Commission, 2017). This delay is bound to cause a continuous problem for the UK and EU in the future thereby affecting those countries in EU who are already financially struggling such as Italy, Greece, Spain. The delay also creates a division between the people and the government as it heightens the collapse of the public’s trust in the government.
Britain as a state poses a great amount of influence on other European states, I believe that the divorce between the UK and the European Union could be the start of a domino effect and influence the remaining states that are less dependent on the European Union to break free and follow in the footprints of the UK. According to “office for the national statistics” (Anon., 31 October 2017) the UK contributed around £13.9 billion into the European Union also being one of the largest states to contribute. The smaller states within the EU have already made it clear to Brussels that they would not be willing to compensate and pay more due to the
departure of the UK. After Germany, France and Italy, Britain in 2014 was one of the largest contributors to the EU budget contributing billions of euros into a very strong European economy and after 2015 it became one of the 3rd largest contributors with Italy’s economy weakening (Anon., 31 October 2017). Aside from the UK being a large contributor to the European economy it is also important to remember that the departure of the UK from the European Union will overtime present an economic dent in how progressive the European Union will move forward after the departure of the UK and such an issue could possibly move towards the break-up of the European Union.
On the other side who is to say that the EU will not grow stronger and build a closer integration of the remaining 27 states. Cini and Verdun (2016), laid out a counter argument stating that there will be a more positive future for Europe once the ‘stumbling block’ of British membership has been removed, since the UK has historically blocked – or taken no part in – important moves towards greater integration, and since the lesson of Brexit may be that leaving the EU is seen to have very significant costs to the development of the European Union as an establishment. For the integration of the remaining states to be maintained or sustainable the remaining states will need to feel that they are doing it by choice. Citizens of Europe need to be allowed to exercise their right to leave democratically if they so wish to allow the integration to continue. Caney, (2016) comments that lasting power of EU institutions would be bolstered to the extent that they conduct affairs in systematically self-reflexive ways, even when emergency action is required. Europe will need to reshape so that the EU and Non-EU members including Britain would like to be part but will this be an issue the EU take into consideration; possibly in the future. During Brexit talks, Thresa May has enhanced her want to work with Non-EU members such as China and The United States of America to strengthen trade and global affairs. The remaining European states will take note on how the EU concludes the Brexit talks, this might, therefore, determine the closer integration of remaining states. If EU shows flexibility and opt-outs with their negotiations with Britain this will allow the remaining states to not feel tied down or forced to remain unwillingly. As Bellamy & Kröger, (2017) states the intergovernmental processes of the EU and the forms of differentiated integration it produces can be regarded not as pragmatic compromises but as matters of principle, whereby the EU seeks to achieve equality of concern and respect among the peoples of Europe.
To conclude, having understood both arguments I feel that it is fair to conclude that Brexit and future relations with the EU will be somewhat of a complex matter that even scholars and politicians will have to work with as the months go by. Currently, as the negotiations stand, the government have been in talks for several days about the context of the deal made by Theresa May and the possibility of the deal being agreed or rejected for the UK to leave the European Union in March 2019. I believe that, like many others that the UK departure from the European Union may be more problematic for the future of both parties as it will impact the economy and causes ambiguous conversations regarding Northern Ireland and their border, the future of British citizens living within the EU and those EU citizens currently living in the UK, but I feel the biggest issue would be how the EU responds to UK current deal being proposed for the departure of the EU does not favour Britain in enabling a stable future post-Brexit.