Essay: International space and counterspace programs, security

While much of the technological world focuses on the advancement of artificial intelligence, another frontier is that of space based technology. Ever since the beginning of the second space age, characterized by the fall of the Soviet Union, China has began to increase its extraterrestrial presence through its expanding space and counterspace programs. It is critical to attempt to understand not only why this is important, but what the driving factors behind the expansion of China’s programs. China’s space and counterspace programs have been a priority since the January 2007 ASAT (Anti-Satellite) test. The most significant part of all of this, is that this is an ever increasing threat.
According to Figure 1.1, it can be seen that China has, since the early 1990s, greatly increased its rate of space launches to rival that of the United States and Russia.
Is seen on the 2017 Worldwide Threat Analysis from current Director of National Intelligence, Daniel Coats.
Thanks to new technologies revolving around space launches, Robert Walker assesses there to be a cost revolution. Such makes this threat increasingly more significant as time passes.
According to former Assistant Director for National Security, Robert Walker, “This increased Chinese space presence means that the days of unchallenged U.S. space supremacy are over”
PNT (Position, Navigation, and Timing) Systems are a growing necessity for intelligence.
Motivations:
Control over the geopolitical atmosphere in Southeast Asia is of major importance to China as they strive continually have shown to assert dominance over the region both through policy and military exercises. Having political supremacy over their region would give China a foothold to gain more control on the global political level.
Micah Zenko from the Center for Preventive Action noted that China has incentive to use counter space weapons to deter US involvement in Taiwan and other territorial feuds in the South China Sea.
Figure 2.1 from the Maritime Review shows the disputed territory in the South China Sea that could motivate China to assert control over the region and deter US involvement.
In many aspects on the global slate, the United States and China are in competition. Due to this, there is an extremely high incentive for China to increase both its space and counterspace programs. The level of competition in space is beginning to resemble the early stages of the space race between the Soviet Union and the United States.
The United States has a high level of dependence on PNT systems which factors into this motivation due to it being a prime target of deterrence strategies.
An Inside GNSS article quoted former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, General Norton Schwartz, “Our dependency on the Global Positioning System has also created certain vulnerabilities that our adversaries can exploit through jamming and other tactical denial techniques.” This vulnerability provides the means for China to take an upper hand in competition and conflict with the United States.
According to Phillip C. Saunders in Joint Force Quarterly, “One China expert suggested that the key messages are that the United States could not expect to dominate space alone.”
Much like how the United States has a high dependence on space based technologies, China has a growing dependence on the very same technologies. This need presents a growing motivation for the expansion of programs. While there is a growing dependence on these technologies, it is not close to the level of dependence of the United States.
China is currently dependent on many American owned assets in space. This provides additional incentive to further their own programs to become technologically independent.
According to the testimony of Dr. Ashley J. Tellis, China’s greatest advantage is not the American dependence on the technology alone, but rather the difference between American dependence and Chinese dependence.
Counterspace programs both enhance the level of security for China. Counterspace weapons allow for China for diversify and expand its military capabilities. This further modernizes China’s military while also giving an additional outlet of both offensive and defensive strategy.
Bruce MacDonald references that counter space is relevant to China’s national security goals.
The security dilemma can fundamentally apply here since the United States is the largest threat China could face. Such theory of escalation is expanded on by James Finch.
Space is one area of potential for major economic growth. Such can be seen with the success of companies like SpaceX and Boeing. Establishing a stronger state owned space presence will establish a foundation for Chinese private companies to establish a commercial market. An expanding counterspace presence will allow the Chinese to protect commercial interests set up by their space efforts. Thus sets up a strong potential for motivation of expanding counter space programs.
Implications of Counter space Threats:
Debris is one aspect of space based warfare that must be considered. Thanks to past tests of ASAT technologies it is clear that debris would serve to be a significant source of danger as a result of space conflict.
While China is physically located and implicated in the geopolitical atmosphere of Southeast Asia, the United States is also deeply involved in these geopolitics through both its allies and foes.
With the space and counterspace relations between the United States and China rapidly becoming similar to the atmosphere of the Cold War between the United States and Russia, there is a significant risk of escalation much like that of the previous Cold War.
The counter space threats that face the United States span a wide variety of different weaponries. Such diverse weapons capable of threatening US PNT systems are in development by the Chinese. This diversity would mean a greater difficulty by the United States to protect its orbital assets.
In today’s modern technological world, cybersecurity has become a topic of utmost importance. Cyber threats are near the top of the Intelligence Community’s priorities year after year. Cyber offensives in the form of electronic warfare are critical to a counter space strategy, meaning this has an even greater importance.
According to John Dickson’s article, “The two separate worlds of electronic warfare and cybersecurity are beginning to overlap, if not collide.”
Forecast:
I predict that China will not only continue to further their space and counterspace programs, but also that there will be an exponential growth in the rate of expansion.
According to Bruce MacDonald, “Going forward, we can expect China to grow its space capabilities in ways that meet its national security objectives.”
Policy Suggestion:
I suggest that the United States take not a unilateral policy approach, but rather a diverse and multilayered approach to handling the risks and implications of China’s expanding space and counterspace programs.
The first level of this approach is to publicly continue to pursue developing and innovative international space treaties.
The second level of the policy approach is to push for the improvement of the defensive capabilities and structural integrity of American space based assets.
The third and final level of this strategy is to diversify American technologies in order to lessen dependence on space based technologies as a contingency in the case that a conflict between the United States and China does arise.