Archbishop Desmond Tutu once said, “You can never win a war against terror as long as there are conditions in the world that make people desperate — poverty, disease, ignorance.” Climate change is indisputably correlated to a rise in terrorism. Climate change, a shift in overall temperature of the Earth, directly impacts terrorism in a number of ways. Climate change causes food insecurity in developing regions. Such regions do not have the proper political administrations in place to combat this, thus food insecurity flourishes in impoverished areas. These areas are unable to adapt to the changing climate and cannot mitigate the varying climate. This can be specifically seen within the Sahel region of Africa. Terrorism is exponentially greater in these impoverished areas, and as a result, leads to immense violence. Therefore, climate change directly impacts terrorism on a transnational level.
In 2014, a Department of Defense reported the severity that could incur should climate change continue to exacerbate. Within the archived report, it states that the stressors related to climate change disproportionately affect vulnerable areas. Those specific regions that have conflict struggles will be harmed significantly. It furthers, stating “These gaps in governance can create an avenue for extremist ideologies and conditions that foster terrorism.” In 2015, the Pentagon followed with a report detailing the security implications of this. The statement reads, “Global climate change will aggravate problems such as poverty, social tensions, environmental degradations, ineffectual leadership and weak political institutions that threaten stability in a number of countries.” Climate change impacts political stability worldwide.
The Sahel region of Africa is perhaps the most prime example of where a lack of climate change mitigation techniques and stable political regimes will create the most harm. It has been home to many severe droughts that have led to severe famine. Most scientists agree that the Sahel region of Africa will become increasingly drier as a result of unnatural global warming, according to the UNEP. Furthermore, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that the Sahel region and Central Africa will be home to some of the highest temperature increases in the world.
Kandji Tacko of the UNEP finds that climate change variation specifically within the Sahel region of Africa lowers agricultural production, thereby raising the risk of hunger from a baseline 34% to nearly 64-70% by 2030, as climate change would result in an increase in temperature anywhere from 1 to 2.75 degrees celsius. Thus, countries like Chad and Niger have the potential of losing their entire rain-fed agriculture by 2100.
Donald Yamamoto of the U.S. Department of State wrote in 2013 that the weak political political institutions allow terrorist organizations to move freely across borders and recruit and train new members. He writes specifically of the Libyan revolution and the coup d’etat in Mali, in which rebel groups were able to seize power as a result of deep seated corruption and incapable governmental institutions. As a result, rebel groups including branches of Al Qaeda and Tuareg rebel groups were able to usurp power. Because of the lack of political stability in these regions, Yamamoto believes that groups are also utilizing transnational criminal networks to transport and smuggle weapons, drugs and people across borders.
Jake Harriman of the New York Times further explicates the link between climate change and terrorism. He believes that extreme poverty is the main contributing factor to an increase in terrorism and insurgency worldwide. One of the largest factors for someone turning into terrorism is poverty. These organizations provide what their governments cannot — food, money, shelter, and other services necessary for survival or even, benefit of life. Beenish Ahmed writes that socioeconomic status is a motivator for being susceptible to extremism. Terrorist networks are able to supply social services, education and clinics, which is far more than some inadequate governments are able to provide.
Climate change causes this poverty as it has and will continue to displace people and ruin livelihoods as seen in the case of Mali. In fact, Nemat Shafik, the Vice President for Private Sector Development at the World Bank stated that Third World countries are the most likely places for terrorism to flourish as a result of their severe economic stagnations. These countries maintain a widening wealth disparity. Coupled with high level of illiteracy, militants are able to brainwash, recruit and control new members with simply the promise of a better life. Professor James Piazza of the UNC writes, “The low levels of economic and social development increase the appeal of political extremism and encourages political violence and instability.” Countries with large internally displaced populations, commonly known as IDPs, have a much higher rate of suicide terrorism as well. This can be seen in the case of the India/Pakistan partition of 1947, in which the massive migration of people — one of the largest diasporas in the world — allowed extremist movements to recruit hoards of new members in the disputed region of Kashmir. IDPs increase suicide terrorism in a number of ways. Internal displacement boosts economic deprivation, ethnic conflict, human rights abuses and state capacities, which, in turn, creates an environment susceptible for recruitment.
Rafael Reuvny furthers this within his analysis of climate change and conflict. His theory outlines the interconnectedness of livelihood and the environment. Lesser developed countries face huge economic concerns as a result of lacking proper infrastructure, in addition to having small amounts of arable land per capita. A lack of access to drinking water, increasing rates of deforestation, and cycles of unpredictable droughts, floods and windstorms have wrought with them disaster. The dependency of lesser developed countries on the environment is generally very high. In fact, in 2000, nearly 58% of the total labor force in Africa was employed in agriculture. Being unable to mitigate these climate disasters forces diaspora, in which migrants shift to more opportune locations. However, being unable to speak the language or fully immerse in the culture makes new immigrants prime targets for internal violence and conflicts. This is seen within the Hutu and Tutsis during the Rwandan genocide. Of the 38 case studies observed, environmental factors caused intrastate migrations that in turn caused conflict in 19 cases. In the other 19 cases, 14 of the migrant groups were observed to share the same characteristics as the area to which they moved. This lack of inter-communal conflicts illustrates the dichotomy between culture all around the world. These segmentations of society and the difference in fundamental understandings of humanity lead to high risk of conflict and terrorism. Not attempting to mitigate climate change induced migration will lead to increased conflict and political fallout within lesser developed countries.
To conclude, climate change and terrorism are inextricably linked. Governments in lesser developed countries are unable to adapt to climate change, causing widespread poverty, famine and migration. These three factors are extremely correlative to high rates of terrorism, and recruitment for suicide terrorism, as these extremist networks are able to provide resources and motivation that unstable and inadequate governments are unable to supply. There is a direct relationship between these migrations and conflicts throughout history, and will continue at an exacerbated pace unless rectified through complete overhaul of government, agriculture, infrastructure and education networks.