It has been nearly two decades since the Cold War, a situation defined as a state of political and military tension between the Eastern side (Russia) and the Western side (United States of America, NATO and the European Union).
The Cold War suffused contemporary living in the United States, and the American home was central to conflicting visions of a good life during a period dominated by dueling superpowers and concerns to “contain” Soviet Communism. (1)
The change in the structure of power in the international community without a proper institutional reform of the current system of international institutions led to fractures in at the time level of stability. The system that was was made after the Second World War was designed according with those circumstances of the time, balancing the allied forces’ powers, but soon hostilities and conflicts of interests emerged (2)
We could say that a new Cold War or a 2.0 version is different in character compared to the original, but potentially dangerous, being built on competing interests and values, where the lines of a new global struggle for geopolitical advantage are beginning to emerge (3). No fundamental interests divide the two former superpowers (3).
It has been pointed out for those who believe that there is no such “new” Cold War that the actual situation with Russia is not accurate of reflecting the old Cold War with the Soviet Union as previously the rivalry involved two powers, more or less symmetrical in terms of military capacity, whereas today it would be asymmetric as the US is much more tangibly powerful. (4)
One of the main points in the basis of the so-called new Cold War, and reassured by Russian policy experts, is the fear of the future possible collapse of diplomacy, having increased the dangers of a proxy war or a direct Russian-Western warfare (5).
As the Cold War ended decades ago, the new 2.0 version has been said to make its great detonation in 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea and helped foment a rebellion in Ukraine’s industrial East, and also the Drowning of Malaysia Airlines Flight, where Russia had malicious intentions in the accident. This events created an aftermath where both sides, west and east,
1 Cimbala, Stephen J., and Roger N. Mcdermott. “A New Cold War? Missile Defenses, Nuclear Arms Reductions, and Cyber War.” Comparative Strategy 34, no. 1 (2015)
2 Ž Ivaniš, IL Đorđević, Z Jeftić. “A new cold war or continuation of the old one.” University of Belgrade, Faculty of Security Studies Vol. 68, br. 4, str. 36-45 (2016)
3 Sakwa, Richard. 2008. “‘New Cold War’ or twenty years’ crisis? Russia and international politics.” International Affairs 84 (2)
4 Greg Simons. “Shaping of Cold War 2.0: The Role of Information and Identity.” Small Wars Journal, January 17, 2018. 5 Oliphant, Roland. “Russia and the West have ‘entered a new Cold War’.” The Telegraph. October 22, 2016
implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions against each other. The West imposed restrictive measures on Russia. (6)
The crisis in Ukraine pushed the two sides into a new relationship, one not softened by the ambiguity that defined the last decade of the post– Cold War period, when each party viewed the other as neither friend nor enemy. Russia and the West became adversaries since (7).
Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation, acts as the mastermind behind the East’s defense “attacks” in this war, and has his own strategies in order to derogate the West by stirring the tens situation exploiting Russian fears. He once admitted that “The collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” (8)
Russian strategic culture and strategy are heavily informed by Russia’s history, geography, and geopolitical interests. It has been described as “one of the most martial and militarized cultures in history, rivaling, if not exceeding, those of Prussian Imperial and Nazi Germany, and Imperial Japan in this respect.” (9)
These strategies are based in the creation of a situation where Europe and America abandon their principles and sacrifice their allies to accommodate Putin’s requests without Russia having to interfere in any crossfire areas. (10) All related to the tactic of dividing the West and derogating it (implementing fear and increasing their level of weakness) where the time comes to submit to Russia’s desires.
This tactic is clearly portrayed in the “Gerasimov Doctrine”, and article from 2013 that explains the strategy thought to dismantle the Western alliance, adopting tactics associated with hybrid wars, using non-military over military measures and allowing a weaker power like Russia to fight by exploiting Western’s weaknesses (11). It has also been seen or called the blueprint for Russia’s strategy in the annexation of Crimea.
Acknowledging that strategy does not mean that the West must accept Russian domination. Instead, new arrangements are needed that are acceptable to both the West and Russia.
6 “EU restrictive measures in response to the crisis in Ukraine.” EU restrictive measures in response to the crisis in Ukraine – Consilium. October 23, 2017
7 Grossman, Richard S., and Hugh Rockoff. “Fighting the Last War: Economists on the Lender of Last Resort.” Managing the new Cold War: what Moscow and Washington can learn from the last one: 231-79, 2014.
8 Smith, Tony. “After the Cold War: Wilsonianism Resurgent?” Princeton University Press, 2017
9 Fritz W. Ermarth, “Russia’s Strategic Culture: Past, Present, and… In Transition?” Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, October 31, 2006
10 Kirchick, James. “Russia’s plot against the West.” Politico. March 17, 2017.
11 Renz, Bettina. “Russia and ‘hybrid warfare’.” Contemporary Politics 22, no. 3 (2016)
Achieving a stable situation and partnership could be possible, but it would require both Western and Eastern blocs to compromise (12)
Policy experts use the term “second Cold War” to refer to this tension period between these states. Politicians in the East side have talked about the matter. Mikhail Gorbachev, former leader of the Soviet Union, who stated that “the world is on the brink of a new Cold War and trust should be restored by dialogue with Russia” (13). Dmitri Medvedev, Russia’s Prime Minister, said in the 2016 Munich Security Conference “We are rolling into a new Cold War” when talking about the threats of NATO to Russia (14).
On the Western side of experts that have given their opinion on the matter, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s Secretary General, stated that NATO is not seeking confrontation with Russia and does not want another Cold War (15).
A side from both blocs implicated in the new Cold War, Syria also has an impact or relation to this subject. Bashar al-Assad, Syrian President, said that “The conflict in Syria is no longer a simply civil war but not conflict in a global Russian-American confrontation reminiscent of the Cold War”, adding that “The conflict had taken Col War-era character, an escalation of the situation that looks like a Cold War in the process of development” (16).
In conclusion, many policy experts inside and outside the areas affected, agree that the period we are living can be described as a new Cold War, related to the fact that maybe the Cold War itself never really ended properly and developed or transformed into a new one, with new resources the countries involved have acquired with time and becoming a current threat to the world.
Expert observers and media commentators have debated whether the current deterioration in relations between Russia and the West constitutes a “new Cold War”, a ‘Cold War II” or a “return to the Cold War” (17)
12 Charap, Samuel, Jeremy Shapiro. “Consequences of a New Cold War.” Survival 57, no. 2 (2015)
13 “Mikhail Gorbachev warns of new Cold War.” BBC News. November 08, 2014
14 “NATO Threatens Russia” Speech by Dmitry Medvedev at MSC 2016, Global Research, February 15 2016
15 “Nato chief says alliance ‘does not want new Cold War’.” BBC News. October 28, 2016
16 “‘The Cold War never ended…Syria is a Russian-American conflict’ says Bashar al-Assad.” The Telegraph. October 14, 2016.
17 Andrew Monaghan. “A ‘New Cold War’? Abusing History, Misunderstanding Russia.” Russia and Eurasia Programme, May 2015.
Sir Richard Shirreff, former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of NATO said “What we have is a situation in which the strong leader of a relatively weak state is acting in opposition to weak leaders of relatively strong states” (18)
United States and Russian relations have bee strained for the last decades, what has let to this situation. The agreements both parties have made through the years may not been the most accurate, establishing a not so ideal situation, the one we found ourselves into.
This “new” Cold War is the outcome of the inability to overcome the structures and sentiments that accompany the original struggle (3).
With this, we can agree that it is correct to speak of a new Cold War between Russia and the West, as most policy experts do so and the actual situation reminisces of the one that was the Cold War.
18 Osnos, Evan, David Remnick, and Joshua Yaffa. “Trump, Putin, and the New Cold War.” The New Yorker. August 15, 2017