Analyzing “Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought” Through a Scientific Perspective
As the name implies, the article covers recent climate change in the Fertile Crescent—more specifically, the drought in Syria. Utilizing a variety of maps related to precipitation and climate, the authors not only analyze the causes behind the sudden shift in climate, but also describe how the drought contributed to the vulnerability and eventual instability of Syria. In particular, they investigate the drought’s implications on the agricultural/social sectors. They draw a clear and logical relationship between “human interference,” a subsequent drought, and eventual “agricultural collapse and mass human migration.” (Kelley 3245) The writers essentially conclude that the drought, which was inadvertently caused by human’s contribution to climate change, increased Syria’s vulnerability to conflict and was one of the primary causes for the subsequent war.
First, the article examines the different ways in which Syria initially became susceptible to the drought. The author explains what factors exacerbated the region’s extended dry spell; the biggest one being the lack of governmental regulation on agriculture, thus leading to “unsustainable” practices. The authors cite perhaps the biggest “direct” result of these unsustainable agricultural practices: the decline of groundwater. This steady decline of groundwater—which the authors accredit to the drying of Syria’s Khabur River—had drastic effects on “small and medium-scale farmers and herders,” who experienced “zero or near-zero production.” (Kelley 3242) Lower agricultural yields eventually led to a whole host of new issues, such as “dramatic increase in nutrition-related diseases,” internal displacement, and overcrowding. The authors utilize population statistics to describe Syria’s urban population, as well as to highlight the issues that arose as people relocated into densely-populated cities.
Next, the authors discuss “the drought in context.” To demonstrate the change in precipitation during the drought years (2006-2008), the authors utilize two graphs that show “Rainfall Climatology” and “Rainfall Changes” from the years 1931 to 2008, and then 2008 minus 2001/2-2007. Using the aforementioned graphs, the authors also offer three explanations as to why Syria’s most recent drought was also its most “dramatic.” They attribute the intensity of its effects to an increased population (and therefore increased need for resources), declining groundwater supply, and a lack of a “recovery period” from a drought that occurred just a decade before.
In the first few lines of the article, the authors state that the apparent “drying and warming (in the Fertile Crescent) are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases.” (Kelley 3241) What the authors are essentially trying to prove is that the drought is not part of a “naturally occurring trend,” rather, an abnormality caused by “human interference.” They support this assertion through utilization of climatic graphs and charts detailing precipitation in the Fertile Crescent, which compares historical data against what is predicted and then actually observed. They conclude that although the Fertile Crescent has had a history of droughts and drying periods, the most recent drought is more likely to have anthropogenic causes. Moreover, the author asserts that the Fertile Crescent region, and by extension Syria, will certainly become drier in the future; as supported by an “externally forced winter drying rend over the latter half of the 20th century” and “global coupled climate models.” (Kelley 3243)
I’d like to further elaborate on the evidence used to support the author’s assertions within the article. As mentioned throughout this essay, the authors methodically utilize graphs detailing historical/current precipitation and drying trends in the Fertile Crescent. The paper also references statistics; for example, when referring to Syria’s percent population growth. Overall, the purpose of these pieces of evidence are to support the author’s claim that the drought contributed to internal conflict within Syria.
In conclusion, the authors reasoned that the effects of Fertile Crescent’s recent drought were heightened by poor agricultural policies, which then in turn increased Syria’s vulnerability to internal conflict. In short, the drought caused many issues that eventually led to the nation’s political instability and ensuing civil war. Focusing more on the scientific findings of the study, as well as the methods used and conclusions drawn, I’d say that the authors’ deductions appear to be valid, and the procedures seem sensible. Poor agricultural practices, combined with an extended drought and brewing social unrest would logically lead to civil war, which occurred only a years after the drought had ended. I felt as if the evidence used was sufficient enough to support the author’s conclusions, although I am unsure as to how other scientists are expected to test the results of the data provided. Perhaps they can conduct their own data and construct their own models (for precipitation and drying) to compare with the authors of this article. Generally speaking, however, I believed that the authors’ verdict about the drought’s effects and implications on Syria’s conflict were justified because they utilized quite of bit of scientific data and evidence. Another interesting thing I’d like to note about the authors’ argument is how they bring in a bit of perspective from a Syrian farmer’s point of view. For me, this made the article make more sense, as well as convinced me about the relationship between the drought and eventual civil war.
In the past few weeks, lessons have focused on the world’s food and water supply, and whether or not we’d have enough resources to sustain a rapidly growing population in the coming decades. Recently, the class learned that “water is directly linked to the globe’s food supply,” meaning that the agricultural yields—and, to some degree, the world’s health—are dependent on whether or not we have enough clean, sustainable water to continue supporting current farming/herding practices. I feel like the teachings of these lessons resonated deeply with the drought in the Fertile Crescent, as it is an example of what happens when good water conservation/agricultural practices are not put to use. Although the authors point out that “farmers depend strongly on year-to-year rainfall,” groundwater is still commonly used for agricultural purposes. (Kelley 3241) The rapid depletion of Syria’s groundwater resources as a result of poorly enforced governmental regulations meant that there would be less for future crops, as well as less for the population to consume.
Speaking of conservation of groundwater, I know that this has been an increasingly pressing issue in other countries, especially those that have a large population or cannot depend on consistent rainfall. As mentioned in class, groundwater is a safe, viable resource, unless used in excess. Unfortunately, like Syria, other countries have found it difficult to enforce polices about groundwater extraction. One recent example of this is India, who has not taken the necessary measures to ensure a sustainable future. If India does not heed Syria’s example, they may soon also face the same socioeconomic stresses that the nation has suffered, especially if hit with a natural disaster like a drought. This may actually be worsened by the fact that India has a much larger population, and therefore needs much more resources. However, India’s population growth rate does not seem to slowing anytime soon, so the nation will need to look into much stricter environmental regulations—which may interfere with the interests of society. Overall, it is an incredibly difficult situation to fix, but a conclusion must be reached before they, too, reach internal conflict.
Another class lesson I feel like this article connects to was our discussions about global climate change. Scientists know with certainty that climate change is happening, and they also are fairly sure that humans contribute quite a bit to the global warming trend. There is, however, a little debate as to how much we contribute, and what impacts this will have on natural disasters (such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, droughts, etc.) In particular, scientists are unsure of how climate change will influence these disasters’ frequency or intensity. Using historical precipitation data and atmospheric data (amount of observed CO2 , atmospheric circulation, etc.), the authors are able to eventually conclude that this particular drought was strongly influenced by global climate change, and by a large degree, human interference.
In short, the article discusses in depth the impact of the Fertile Crescent’s most recent drought, argues that it strongly influenced by “human interference,” and gives reasons as to why it became Syria’s worst drought in history. To support the assertions made in the article, the authors utilize precipitation data and analyze historical drying trends (in particular, they look at the amount of rain in the winter months), as well as look at humidity and population statistics. The drought is connected with a few of the concepts we learned in class; for example, climate change (and humanity’s role) and water conservation. In conclusion, the article dissects the drought and Syria and hints at a continuing global trend if humanity does not act to reduce the harmful effects of climate change and conserve a rapidly dwindling groundwater supply.