Essay: How global climate change expresses itself now and how it will likely develop in the future

Global climate change is very likely the most socially underestimated, all the while most serious threat humankind is facing presently. The first aspects of climate change science were identified by scientists in the early 19th century, when the natural greenhouse effect was firstly put together. That humanly created emissions contributed to this natural effect was discovered at the end of the century. It was discussed heavily during the decades, polarising scientists between the emissions having a cooling effect and a warming one, but in the 1990s, it was clarified by the use of computer models and observational work that greenhouse gases contribute distinctly to the incalescence of our climate. Further theories advanced from this point onwards including the contribution of solar variation and volcanism to the greenhouse effect. Additionally, it was established that the warming of the atmosphere is a consequence of an increased emission of carbon dioxide (BBC 2013).
1972 the first UN environment conference took place in Stockholm; however, climate change was not discussed although already discovered and proven. 16 years later the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was founded to research on and support theories on climate change. IPCC ́s first report launched two years later. It included the certification of temperature risings over the last century which were expected to be caused by the human emissions adding up to the natural greenhouse gases.
The first intergovernmental action against the impacts of climate change was initiated during the Earth Summit 1992. It was agreed on a stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations before irreparable changes were to occur (BBC 2013).
Since then many more intergovernmental meetings, protocols and agreements took place, many with unclear outcomes. Climate change still has not arrived in the public ́s daily discussion.
If one takes a look at the United States of America, according to a survey undertaken by the Yale University only 40% of the citizens believe climate change will harm them personally in the future (Marlon et al. 2016). This problem of civil unawareness is not solely an American one but can be applied globally and is the reason why much more attention must be drawn to climate change – it presently already affects everyone, however, not many people choose to pay attention let alone act on it because it is not clarified enough what the direct and concrete consequences of this drastic change are (Sampei 2009).
The aim of this essay is to elaborate on the way global climate change expresses itself now and how it will most likely develop in the future. Furthermore, the essay will present possible surveillance methods of these expressions based on an environmental management approach; They deliver the necessary data to reveal any cause-effect relation to politics and especially to the public. They are the basis for appropriate reaction in the area of environmental policies.
Causes of climate change
Climate change is a term encompassing a broad variety of natural happenings. It is pre- eminently caused by the humanly enhanced greenhouse effect, which acts like a blanket around the earth. This “blanket” keeps more than the usual amount of the sun’s radiation inside the atmosphere (Reynolds et al. 2010).
Normally, around 70% of the sunlight reaching the earth passes through our atmosphere to the surface, where it is radiated back as infrared heat warming our living space. It will be absorbed by greenhouse gases and clouds and later re-emitted again towards the surface, wrapping the earth in about 15 oC on average (Rotmans 2012). This is the regular greenhouse effect which is the reason why life on earth is possible. Without it, the temperature on earth would be about -18 oC on average (Rotmans 2012). The enhanced greenhouse effect however, heats up the radiation more and keeps more of it inside the lower atmosphere. The “blanket” consists of several long-living gases like water vapor, nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide, and methane (NASA 2018a).
Water vapor, for instance, a very big component of greenhouse gases and an important player in enhancing the surface warming (Solomon et al. 2010), increases as the atmosphere heats up. This implicates that the possibility of precipitation and clouds, at least in the Northern Hemisphere, increases too. Hence frequent clouds and precipitation are among the most revelatory symptoms of climate change (NASA 2018b).
The increased release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is mainly caused by anthropogenic activities like deforestation and especially burning fossil fuels. The CO2 adds up to natural emissions like respiration of volcano eruptions. These emissions have increased by more than 30% in the last century. As Figure 1 illustrates and as the Keeling Project on Mauna Loa, Hawaii, proved, the atmospheric carbon dioxide level has risen from an all-time average of 280 to 400 parts per million in just about 70 years. Even though its share in the greenhouse-gas-mix is relatively small, it is considered as the main booster to climate change (Reynolds et al. 2010).
Figure 1: Atmospheric carbon dioxide level over the millenniums (NASA 2018c)
Methane is a hydrocarbon gas which is an even more active heat-trapping gas than carbon dioxide. However, it occurs rarer in the atmosphere. It is produced naturally, for example through ruminant digestion and through the use of manure of domestic livestock (Grainger, Beauchemin 2011) and the decomposition of wastes in landfills. Its emission can also have anthropogenic causes like agriculture and rice cultivation (Yan et al. 2009).
Another one of the main components is nitrous oxide. It is emitted during soil cultivation activities as well as fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning (NASA 2018b).
The last main components are chlorofluorocarbons, which are solely used in an industrious way like for the cooling systems of fridges (NASA 2018b). However, their major share in the destruction of the ozone layer has long been discovered and their production has been cut down by international agreement.
The amount of the before mentioned gases in the atmosphere has been rising now since the start of industrialization, making them with 100% certainty one of the major shareholders to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect (Chuvieco 2008). Their increase is a concrete objection to the fulfilment of the mitigation goal.
3 Expression of global climate change and possible surveillance methods
The different aspects of climate change set a chain reaction in action, including global temperature rise, warming oceans, declining Arctic sea ice and ocean acidification – just to name a few. In the following, the most important and severe impacts will be presented in more detail.
3.1 Rising temperature
The average surface temperature of the Earth has been rising since the beginning of the industrialization in the early 1850s, that is since the beginning of the man-made enhanced greenhouse effect. The rise is a consequence of the increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other humanly created gases into the atmosphere. They are heat-entrapping gases sealing off the ozone layer and hindering most of the warmth of the sun from being reflected into space again, thus capturing this excess warmth in the atmosphere (Rotmans 2012).
This reveals itself in the simple fact that at the Earth’s surface, each of the last three decades has been measurably hotter than any decade before the industrialization. To encapsulate, land and ocean surface temperature combined have warmed around 0.9 oC just in the last 50 years according to the IPCC 2014, and in the past century it has been around 1.5 oC.
The shift of temperature normals combined with probable heat waves and the foretold ice sheet melting will be strong indicators of climate change and can hint upcoming issues regarding agriculture, water resources, and thus human and environmental health (National Research Council 2010).
Much of this increased heat is being absorbed by the oceans. They most probably can be held accountable for 90% of this accumulated energy conservation – it was measured that the warming is most present near the surface, that is up to around 75 m. The water showed an incalescence of about 0.11 oC in just 40 years from 1971 to 2010. It is also probable that the salinity extremes peaked; areas rich in salinity have become even more saline, whereas fresher areas with low salinity have developed to be less saline. This will most likely result in sea level rise due to a thermal expansion because of the increased level of salinity, but may also have effects on species boundaries which will probably shift (National Research Council 2010). These changes in temperature can be put on a level with the changes in the stability of worldwide ocean circulation patterns because melting ice from the Antarctic and Greenland might cause the Gulf stream to peter out. This would mean that a new ice age could come to Great Britain, Iceland, and Scandinavia, and the European mainland could cool down drastically because the Gulf stream acts as a “heating system” for Europe (Frey 2017).
Ways of monitoring these aspects are tracking the velocity of ocean circulation, observing water temperature at the surface and the subsurface, measuring the salinity, monitoring shifts in atmospheric circulation (i.e. storms) and observing the evolution of continental ice sheets and sea ice.
3.2 Ocean acidification
Hand in hand with the warming of the oceans goes the acidification of the seawater. The excess amount of carbon dioxide in the air has to go somewhere, and the biggest absorbent is the ocean. In the past decades since the beginning of the industrial era, the acidity of the ocean’s surface has increased by 26%, that is the pH-value declined by 0.1. This development will manifest itself even more since the amount of carbon dioxide taken in by the oceans steepens by about two billion tons per year. Since the ocean is the biggest absorbent, it is very certain that this lowering of the pH-value will continue throughout centuries to compensate the high amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is not yet ascertained how this will impact the ecosystems underwater and at the coasts as well as ecosystem services (National Research Council 2010). The ocean acidification could not be compensated by the global sea level rise of about 20 cm in the last 100 years.
In order to monitor this uptake of carbon dioxide, it is possible to analyse the colour of the ocean. Thus, scientists are able to determine the concentration of ocean algae, i.e. the absorbents, on a global scale. Evaluating this data is mandatory in order to keep track of their capability to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. For the purpose of tracing the acidification level, pH-value and dissolved oxygen measurements can be performed, acoustic data and ocean productivity can be evaluated (National Research Council 2010). The ocean acidification can be measured by defining the hydrogen ion concentration of the water.
3.3 Melting ice sheets
Another drastic effect of global warming is the shrinking of the ice sheets. Their decrease in mass lies by about 119 billion tons in Antarctica in just 23 years from 1993 to 2016 – its rate tripled in the last decade. Translated into area, this means that during the last 40 years, about two and a half million square kilometres of ice melted, broke away or in any other way diminished, as Figure 2 demonstrates.
Figure 2: How the Arctic ice sheets are declining in area (NASA 2018a)
The Arctic sea ice, which is not only a crucial habitat for polar bears but also plays its role in regulating the European temperature, is rapidly declining in extent and thickness (Frey 2017). During winter 2017/2018, it has reached its second lowest maximum of ice extent in the Arctic (BBC 2018). It is possible to survey its decline by the use of satellite observations (NASA 2018a).
3.4 Retreating glaciers
The ice also retreats in the Alps, Himalaya, Africa – everywhere around the world glaciers are retracting. Satellite observations also indicate that the already reduced amount of snow in the northern hemisphere is melting earlier each year. This melting ice and the overall increased extent of thawing permafrost results in the removal of a critical water source. The change could force the relocation of one-sixth of Earth ́s population which critically depends the runoff of glaciers as drinking water source or on end-of-season snowpack (National Research Council 2010). It could also affect the water availability and quality through the release of pollutants and organics captured in the ice – these gases also contribute to climate change (Swann et al. 2009, Pfirman et al. 1995).
Monitoring these changes is possible through measuring the vertical temperature profile of permafrost and the ice volume fraction. The changes are also revealed by observing the surface snow cover and temperature, vegetation and surface elevation change (National Research Council 2010).
3.5 Sea-level change
The sea-level rise is another effect of climate change. The rate in the past 20 years (approximately 55 mm in 20 years) is nearly twice as high as the rise in the last century, which averaged to about 30 mm in 20 years (NASA 2013d). This can be seen in Figure 3. Where these changes in space and time lead to the loss of property through coastal erosion and/or floods, human and animal populations could be forced to relocate. Such an event would increase the potential for cultural conflicts (National Research Council 2010).
Figure 3: The rise of the sea level (NASA 2013d)
The sea-level rise can easily be tracked by monitoring the global sea level heights together with the seafloor morphology and glacial ice mensuration. This is due to the fact that sooner or later the glacial meltwater will end up in the oceans and due to the sped-up melting treated in 3.3 and 3.4, the rate will increase drastically in the future. It is also useful to create models of inundation, coastal erosion and potential storm damage in order to thwart these catastrophes since they are a predictable consequence of sea-level rise (National Research Council 2010, Chuvieco 2008).
3.6 Accumulating natural disasters
The last point is the accumulation of extreme events. The USA experiences more and more record high temperatures every year, congruously the record low temperatures occur fewer than ever. However extreme events also include heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and
wildfires. Changes in the earth’s system diversity also follow as a response to weather and climate extremes. Species that prove unable to adapt to the new circumstances will ultimately disappear or have to surrender to more successfully adapted species. An increased number of strong blusters with mounting intensity is also an indicator for these extreme events, just like frequent insect infestations. Insects are the profiteers of global changes in wind patterns and/or sea level rise, as they can be transported great distances into regions usually not inhabited by them (Dukes 2009). Global changes can also cause epidemic diseases dangerous for humans, as wind and sea can transport disease vectors communicated by insects. Diseases are especially dangerous; As a side effect they result in the attenuation of a population’s resilience and ability to counteract or even respond to climate as well as other stressors.
The consequences of such extremes range from the disruption of food production and water supply to increased rates of morbidity and mortality and consequences for the physical and psychological health of human beings (IPCC 2014).
There are quite a few ways to survey climatic extremes, as these can be very diverse. In order to monitor severe storms, it is possible to track the annual storm number together with maximum wind speed, geographic storm tracks, precipitation and flash floods. With regard to insect infestations and whether they were dislocated, taking the number of insect infestations, the insect type, the land cover of the infestations, the crop impacts and the historic recurrence into account is helpful. Human diseases can be evaluated by the number and type of epidemics and the impacts they had concerning the fatalities or in general the number hospitalised, the historic recurrence and the geographically affected area.
Another very general way of surveying different aspects at once is by satellites. This astronomical observer can be used for many factors, including tracking the vegetation (with regard to the amount as well as state), the diminishing yearly snow cover, the daily global albedo, and the ice sheet/glacier retreat or rather evolution (Chuvieco 2008). Of course, it is also used to create weather forecasts and surveys, to observe radiation, watervapour, precipitation, and clouds as well as volcanoes and their possible eruptions (Chuvieco 2008).
4 Conclusions
In conclusion, there are many ways to monitor these different aspects of climate change. They just have to be applied. Scientists have to deliver facts for the society in order to build a basis on which politicians and the population can base their decisions in this matter. It is especially important to indicate the cause-effect relationship so that it is possible for people to realise how their actions influence and harm the environment and how it is possible for them to improve; Intrinsic motivation to do so will be much more effective than extrinsic motivation by a legislative power.