Essay: ENERGY SUPPLY, ITS DEMAND AND SECURITY ISSUES.

PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
1. Introduction
Energy is inevitable for human life and a secure and accessible supply of energy is crucial for the sustainability of modern societies. Continuation of the use of fossil fuels is a major challenge in front of human beings: depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global warming and other environmental concerns, geopolitical and military conflicts and the possibility of using energy as economic weapon of unequal geographical distribution of energy resources and of late, continued and significant fuel price rise. These problems gather in front of us a potentially dangerous situation for the future of human civilization. Renewable energy can be the solution to the growing energy challenges. Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, biomass, and wave and tidal energy, are abundant, inexhaustible and environmentally friendly.
The growth in global energy demand is projected to rise sharply over the coming years. At this moment, the world heavily relies on fossil fuels to meet its energy requirements’fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal are providing almost 80% of the global energy demands. On the other hand, renewable energy and nuclear energy making 13.5% and 6.5% of total energy needs.
2. Human civilization and energy use
Energy is one of the most basic need of the human being. The achievements of civilization were largely based on using more efficient and larger scale of various forms of energy to extend human capabilities. Providing adequate and affordable energy is essential for eradicating poverty, improving human welfare and raising living standards worldwide.
Why exactly now the question arises: what awaits humanity – hunger for power or energy abundance? From newspapers and journals do not disappear articles about energy crisis. The oil wars break out, bloom and poor countries, governments change. Communications about new installations and new inventions in the field of energy have become journalistic sensations. Projecting large energy programs, the realization of which requires enormous effort and huge expense.
If at the end of the nineteenth century the prevalent now energy (electric) play an auxiliary role and insignificant in balance global energy in 1930 the world produces about 300 billion kW/h of electricity, in 1996 this figure reached 13,000 billion kW/h.
Evolution of producing energy can be show on next chart. As you can see, in last 35 years production of energy increases with 260% (8017,581 vs 21531,71) but by regions the fastest growing was in Middle East, 990% (91,44 vs 906,9815). At this moment the biggest production on the world are recorded in Asia & Oceania (40%).
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The material level, ultimately and most spiritual of mankind is directly depends the amount of energy provided. To extract the ore, metal to get him to build a house, to do anything, you need to use energy. But human needs grow over time, but the number of population increases.
Scientists and inventors have developed various means of energy production, primarily to the electric. It should build as many power plants, and energy available will be as much as necessary! It would seem that this is the solution to this serious problem, but it creates a string coping with other problems.
Stringent laws of nature say they can get useful energy just by changing them from other forms. Perpetuum-mobile, producing energy from nothing, grudgingly, impossible. But the structure of the energy world today has been established so every 4 of 5 kilowatts are obtained in principle by the same method by which primitive man heat, by burning, or by using the chemical energy of their own, its change electricity at power stations.
Of course, the kinds of fuel combustion became more complicated and perfect.
New factors – higher oil prices, the rapid development of atomic energy, growing needs for environmental protection – have called for a new review on energy.
When forecasting future energy program attend most senior scientists in this field, specialists of different ministries and departments. With computers were calculated hundreds of variations of global energy balance structure. Although based energy stand the heat in the near future using finite resources, its structure will change. You will need to shrink oil use. It will increase electricity production essential to atomic power. It will begin using in the future, huge reserves of cheap coal, for example, the Kuznetsk basin, Kansk-achinsk, ”kibastuzk.
But scientists viewed in the future, after the stock limits provided for energy programs, they give account of the reality of the third millennium. Unfortunately, the reserves of oil, natural gas, coal are not inexhaustible. Nature, to create these reserves have had millions of years to be wasted man-one percent. Today the world began seriously to think of the need to preserve and protect their subterranean riches. Only in this way fuel reserves may reach 2-3 centuries. Regretfully, many countries of oil are living with today. They relentlessly consume oil reserves gifted by Mother Nature. Currently these countries, especially those in the Persian Gulf bathes in money, denying themselves, as over decades of these reserves will not remain anything. What will happen, but it will take place sooner or later, when oil and gas reserves will run dry? Current increase in oil prices, necessary not only energy, but also transport and chemical industry, led to research other types of fuel needed to replace oil and gas. Most were thoughtfully put those countries that have their own resources of oil and gas that they are forced to buy it. But more and more scientists in the world dealing with nontraditional search new energy sources that will take upon themselves some insurance worries of mankind with energy. The solution to this problem researchers looking at a different way. Most preferred methods are use of energy resources flowing water and wind, the tides, the underground heat, sunlight. Much attention is paid to development of atomic energy, scientists are looking for ways on earth reproductive processes occurring on the surface of stars and they supply the enormous energy reserves.
3. Transition in energy use
This term was the title of a 1980 publication by the German ”ko-Institut, calling for the complete abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. On the 16th of February of that year the German Federal Ministry of the Environment also hosted a symposium in Berlin, called Energy Transition: Nuclear Phase-Out and Climate Protection. The views of the ”ko-Institut, initially so strongly opposed, have gradually become common knowledge in energy policy. In the following decades the term expanded in scope; in its present form it dates back to at least 2002.
‘Energy transition’ designates a significant change in energy policy: The term encompasses a reorientation of policy from demand to supply and a shift from centralized to distributed generation (for example, producing heat and power in very small co generation units), which should replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measures and increased efficiency.
In a broader sense the energy transition also entails a democratization of energy:[7] In the traditional energy industry, a few large companies with large centralized power stations dominate the market as an oligopoly and consequently amass a worrisome level of both economic and political power. Renewable energies, in contrast, can as a rule be established in a decentralized manner. Public wind farms and solar parks can involve many citizens directly in energy production. Photovoltaic systems can even be set up by individuals. Municipal utilities can also benefit citizens financially, while the conventional energy industry profits a relatively small number of shareholders. Also, significant, the decentralized structure of renewable energies enables creation of value locally and minimizes capital outflows from a region. Renewable energy sources therefore play an increasingly important role in municipal energy policy, and local governments often promote them.
Three key factors drove the 19th century transition to fossil fuels: declining resource availability (deforestation), higher quality (higher energy density, easier storage, greater flexibility) and lower cost of coals and hydrocarbons. On these three points at least, there is no urgency for an accelerated shift to a non-fossil world: fossil fuel supplies are adequate for generations to come, new energies are not qualitatively superior, and their production will not be substantially cheaper.
Arguments for an accelerated transition to a non-fossil world are predicated almost entirely on concerns about climate change. Even then, because of the enormity of requisite technical and infrastructural requirements, many decades will be needed to capture substantial market shares on continental or global scales. A non-fossil world may be highly desirable, but getting there will demand great determination, cost and patience.
4. Global energy overview
Energy, being a crucial feature of human life, has evolved to match with contemporary human development and requirements. It has been estimated that the global population in 1800 was approximately 1 billion, an uncertain estimate given that the first population census had just been introduced around that time in Sweden and England. Estimates of past energy use based on historic statistics and current energy use in rural areas of developing countries suggest that energy use per person typically did not exceed some 20 GJ as a global average. Over 200 years later, the global population has risen by a factor of 6 while the per person energy consumption is estimated to have risen by a factor of 20. A 20-fold increase, far in excess of world population growth, constitutes the first major energy transition, a transition from penury to abundance. This transition is far from complete and is characterized by persistent spatial and temporal heterogeneity. This transition in energy quantities is also closely linked to corresponding energy transition in terms of energy structure as well as in terms of energy quality. Given the past record of developed countries in their profligate use of energy, developing nations tend to mimic their energy consumption pattern to match those of the developed nations.
One of the most significant transitions in global energy systems is that of decarbonization, an increase in energy quality. Considering the case of fossil fuels, the dominating energy resource over the course of human history, each successive transition from one source to another’from wood to coal, from coal to oil’has entailed a shift to fuels that were not only harnessed and transported more economically, but also had a lower carbon content and higher hydrogen content. It is also evident that at each step greater energy density is being achieved. The third wave of decarbonization is now at its threshold, with natural gas use growing fastest, in terms of use, among the fossil fuels. The fourth wave, the production and use of pure hydrogen, is certainly on the horizon. Its major drivers are technological advances, renewed concern about the security and price of oil and gasoline, and growing pressure to address local air pollution and climate change.
4.1. Energy modes
There are various forms of energy that are employed worldwide to meet human energy requirements. These different forms of energy can be widely categorized into three types: fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable.
An example of how energy is produced in the year 2012 can be seen in the chart below. The graph indicates that the total energy produced, 75% is the non-renewable energy produced and 65% by burning fossil fuels.
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4.1.1. Fossil fuel energy
Historically, fossil fuels, in their various forms, have been the main source of energy supply and have served the human energy needs for thousands of years. Wood and coal have been serving society to meet energy needs for a long time. In the beginning, this energy source was very stable and sustainable. Forests and coal resources were in abundance and were sufficient to meet energy demands. However, as human creativity exceeded expectations, producing a more efficient energy technology based on coal and then on oil was needed. Especially, with the advent of industrial revolution in 19th century, fossil fuels saw their refined liquid phase, oil that is more efficient than their traditional solid phase counterparts (wood and coal). More recently, world became familiarized with gaseous phase of fossil fuels that is ever more efficient. This energy transition from wood to coal to oil to natural gas has been the different phases of traditional fossil fuels.
In the last 35 years increased energy production based on fossil fuels was 2.6 times but by regions Middle East increase production by 10.7 times
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4.1.2. Nuclear power
Radioactive uranium discovery was key to nature’s energy deposits.
The main, which were immediately interested the researchers was the question: where to take energy emitted by uranium and uranium why it is always warmer than the environment? Was put into question or energy conservation law or principle atomic unchange? A great scientific courage is required of scientists who stepped over the border and were denied the ordinary ideas that have endured throughout the ages.
They were two young scientists Ernest Rutherford and Frederic Soddy. Two years of intense work for the study of radioactivity were brought to a conclusion groundbreaking on those times: the atoms of elements are subject to weathering, which is radiant energy in amounts much higher than usual energy obtained from decomposition of molecules. With enormous steps now to develop atomic energy. In 30 years shared power of all nuclear power plants increased from 5000 up to 23 million kW! Some scientists argue that in the XXI century half of the electricity produced worldwide will have nuclear origin.
In principle a nuclear energy reactor has a simple construction – in it, so that a simple boiler, the water turns to steam. It uses energy that radiates from a chain reaction of disintegration of uranium atoms or another type of nuclear fuel.
The most common type of nuclear reactor is the reactor with water and graphite.
Another type of reactor is the so-called spread-water reactor. In it serves both as water heating, as well as moderator to slow neutrons, instead of graphite. Builders brought the power of these reactors up to one million kW.
There is no doubt that atomic energy has occupied a leading place in the energy balance of humanity. It certainly will prosper and continue to produce energy for people. But it will be necessary for improved nuclear security methods.
As you can see in next graphs, world production increases 3.4 times but after 2006 when was maximum, production decreases slowly. The biggest producer on the world in this domain is Europe and North America (75%).
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4.1.3. Renewable energy
It is also called alternative energy, usable energy derived from sources that are able to recover, such as the sun (solar energy) wind (wind energy), rivers (hydro power), thermal springs (energy geothermal), tides (tidal power) and biomass (bio fuels).
a. Solar Energy Lately it increased interest in the problem of using solar energy, and even if it adheres to the source that can be renovated, which is given attention, makes us unique on the potential. Potential possibilities based on the use of solar radiation energy, are quite high. It was calculated that using only 0.0125% of this amount would be quite possible to ensures the energy needs of the modern world, and 0.5% use it fully ensure the future needs. Sorry, it is unlikely that these resources be used enormous potential large scale. One of the most serious obstacles is the low intensity of solar radiation. Even in the best weather conditions (latitude, blue sky), solar radiation flux density of 250 W / m”. Therefore, because of solar radiation collectors to gather per year, energy to meet the needs of humanity they must be located in an area of 130,000 km”! Solar power is very expensive because it requires very high material costs. Using large scale solar energy giant lead to material needs and as a result the workforce for extraction of raw materials, obtaining materials, manufacture heliostats, as collectors and other equipment and transportation. Calculations show that 1 MW/year electricity generated using solar energy require from 10000 up to 40000 man-hours. In traditional energy index is 200-500 man-hours.
b. Wind energy. The energy of air masses is enormous. Reserves wind energy hydro power reserves surpass 100 times all the rivers on Earth. The wind blows constantly globe – from a weak breeze, which brings much needed coolness in the summer heat, up to powerful hurricanes, which bring huge losses and destruction. Ocean air in which we live is in perturbation continue. Winds that blow in our country, can meet the needs of its electric! Why such a rich source, accessible and clean it uses so little? Today engines that use wind, covers only a thousandth part of global energy needs.
c. Hidro power. For millennia, man serves the energy of flowing water. This type of energy reserves on earth, are a huge number. Clearly, in search of energy that mankind could not pass over these enormous energy resources. First people have learned to use the energy of rivers. And it began the golden age of electricity, has been revolutionized water wheel and then – water turbine. The generators, producing energy needed to be rotated, this could easily be done by water, the more that experience in this area exists. It may be modern hydro power was born in 1891. The advantages are obvious: the renewal of the very nature reserves of energy, operation simple, non-polluting environment. But the construction of a dam for a hydro electric sea has become a problem more difficult to achieve than the construction of a dam for a small water wheel. To put into operation hydro turbines strong, have gathered to one side of the dam a large amount of water. For the construction of this jetty is needed so that the volume of Egyptian pyramids material compared it may seem very small. Therefore, in the twentieth century they were built only a few hydroelectric plants. In Russia it is the largest hydro power in the world, basically they produce huge amounts of energy, and have become centers around which were built large industrial complexes. But the people it serves only a small part of the hydro power potential of the earth. Current annual water giant, formed from rain and snow melt seeps in the ocean unused. If, it were possible to be retained by means of dams human civilization would have received huge energy reserves.
d. Tidal Power We know that the ocean level energy reserves are huge. So then, internal energy, corresponding to surface warming ocean waters, with 20 ” C, has a size of about 10 ^ 26 J. The kinetic energy of ocean currents is equal to approximately 10 ^ 18 J. But people can use only a tiny amount of it energy, and is why the very high costs, so this kind of energy is much less prevalent until now. The most obvious method of using ocean energy tidal power plants shows construction (CFE). Since 1967 operates such a power plant of 240 thousand kW power yield of 540 000 kW * h. Bernstein worked Engineer Construction method blocks CFE pushed on the surface in places needed, calculated the cost-effective procedure for implementing the CFE circuit, in the times of maximum load power line. His ideas were verified at CFE, built in 1968 in Guba Chislaia, next Murmansk. From 1966 two French cities meet their energy needs using the ebb and flow of energy. Electric plant on the river Rans (Brittany), consisting of 24 reversible turbine generators, using this energy. Its power is 240 MW – one of the most powerful hydroelectric plant in France. Relatively recently, a group of scientists in oceanology determined that near yhe Florida the speed Gulfstream speed has 5 mph. The idea of using this current hot water was quite appealing. One of the scientists more optimistic as others predicted that electricity from Gulfstream energy, will compete with traditional electricity produced already in the 80s.
e. Geothermal energy Since ancient times people know about the existence of gigantic energy which is hidden inside the globe. Memory mankind enormous eruptions of volcanoes known, that changed many places on earth. The power of a volcano eruption even small is huge, it often surpasses the power of the large power plants, man-made. True, the direct use of energy as volcanic eruptions can not be it, because the people have no such opportunities to stave energy and to subdue it, and eruptions are a rare phenomenon. But this is energy that is hiding in the basement, and only a part of it comes with volcanic eruptions. Little Iceland ensure European country with tomatoes, apples and bananas even from their own sources! Icelandic greenhouses countless receive heat energy from the earth – other energy resources in Iceland virtually missing. Instead, the country is very rich in hot springs and geysers-known – warm water fountain that the accuracy of the timer spring under the ground. And even if they belong to the idea of using heat underground springs (Romans yet known to fetch water for their baths under the ground), inhabitants of the Nordic countries operates very intense underground boiler-houses. Capital – Reykjavik, where half of the population lives, is heated by underground springs. But not only for heat energy out of the deep earth people. Already more time, operates power plants that use hot underground springs. The first plant of this type, with a little power, was built in 1904 in the Italian city of Larderello. The power plant during power-dependently increases were put current assembly, using new sources of hot water, and nowadays these power plants has reached 360,000 kW. In New Zeeland there is such a power in the region Vairakei, its power is 160,000 kW. 120 km from San Francisco in the US, a geothermal power plant produces energy with the power of 500,000 kW.
A short and succinct evolving in figures of energy generated from renewable sources can be seen in the graph below. In last 35 years production increased 2.7 times but Asia & Oceania became the main producer since 2004 with an increase of 583% and now produces a third of global renewable energy
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4.2. Growing energy demand
The 2009 World Energy Outlook, published by Jual Locker in the International Energy Agency, predicts that world demand for oil (often used as a proxy for world demand for energy) will increase from 2,000 million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe) to 16,800 mtoe in 2030. About 93% of this increase in demand is expected to come from China and India. Meeting this demand growth, will require spending $26.3 trillion by 2030, as the majority of, in 2030 will come from fields that have not yet been discovered or developed.
What is driving the increase in worldwide energy demand?
(1) Industrialization, especially in emerging markets. Businesses, and factories in particular, require significant amounts of energy in the form of both electricity and petroleum-based fuels in order to operate. As economies industrialize, energy demand increases.
(2) Increasing wealth in emerging markets, especially China and India. When economies grow, their energy needs grow. Consumers want cars, air conditioners, refrigerators, and other energy hogs.
(3) Globalization. Transportation is one of the largest consumers of energy in the world, accounting for 58% of liquid fuel consumption in OECD countries in 2004. As we move more often, further, and with greater speed, the energy we use in transportation will inevitably increase. Air travel in particular is a heavy user of fuel.
(4) Concerns over energy security. While energy demand is typically driven by short-term considerations (e.g., GDP growth, weather, transport needs), long-term concerns over energy security around the world have led to what some might consider an irrational premium paid for energy assets. This is most apparent in the very favorable deals struck by China with host governments in countries around the world to explore for oil & gas, one of the contributing factors to the increasing premium paid per barrel of proven oil reserves in the oil exploration and production industry.
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4.3. Energy related challenges
The epic challenge of the 21st century is filling the gap between energy supply and demand with clean, reliable and inexpensive energy. While new sources of energy are gradually changing the landscape, products made from fossil fuels continue to heat our homes, fuel our cars and power our computers. Despite extraordinary advances in technology, rapid economic growth in countries like China and India will require more energy. Some solutions are being implemented today, but many will come from the next generation of entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists. In order to rise to this grand challenge, we must consider the following issues.
4.3.1. Fossil fuels depletion
You will never see cheap gasoline again. You will probably never see cheap energy again. Oil, natural gas and coal are set to peak and go into decline within the next decade, and no technology can change that.
Peaking is a simple concept. We generally exploit natural resources in a bell-shaped curve, with the rate of extraction increasing over time until we reach a peak and then gradually slowing down until we stop using them.
Peak oil is not about ‘running out of oil’; it’s about reaching the peak rate of oil production. It’s not the size of the tank that matters, but the size of the tap.
The peak is usually reached when resources become too difficult to extract, or too expensive, or they are replaced by something cheaper, better or more plentiful. Unfortunately, we have no substitutes for oil that are cheaper or better.
According to the best available data, we are now at the peak rate of oil production. After over a century of continual growth, global conventional crude oil production topped out in 2005 at just over 74 million barrels per day (mbpd) and has remained at that level ever since.
The additional ‘oil’ that brings the oft-cited world total to 84 mbpd today (down from 87 mbpd last year; according to U.S. government data) isn’t conventional crude, but, rather, unconventional hydrocarbons, including natural gas liquids, ‘extra heavy’ oil, synthetic oil made from Canadian tar sands, refinery gains, liquids produced from the conversion of coal and natural gas, and bio fuels.
Oil production is expected to go into terminal decline around 2012. The principal reason is that the largest and most productive fields are becoming depleted while new discoveries have been progressively smaller and of lesser quality. Discovery of new oil peaked over 40 years ago and has been declining ever since despite furious drilling and unprecedentedly high prices.
When it begins to decline, rate of crude production is projected to fall at 5%, or over four mbpd, per year’roughly equivalent to losing the entire production of Latin America or Europe every year. The decline rate will likely accelerate to over 10% per year by 2030.
Natural gas is likewise expected to peak some time around 2010-2020, and coal around 2020-2030. Oil, natural gas and coal together provide 86% of the world’s primary energy.
By the end of this century, nearly all the economically recoverable fossil fuels will be gone. From now until then, what remains will be rationed by price. There will be shortages.
As fossil fuels peak and then decline, the world’s economies will be forced for the first time to live within a shrinking, not expanding, energy budget. They will adapt to this new reality by repeating the cycle we saw over the last 18 months: commodity price spikes, leading to economic destruction, leading to supply destruction, leading back to price spikes. Only in recessionary periods, like now, will there be excess supply.
The coming energy shortage is the most serious crisis the world has ever faced, but it could have a very positive outcome. In theory, the Earth’s wind, solar, geothermal and marine resources could each provide more than the total energy the world consumes every day, if we had the ability to harvest them.
As fossil fuel prices rise, the price of renewable generated electricity will continue to fall. If we are wise and lucky, we will rapidly improve the efficiency of our built environment, deploy renewable capacity and convert to an all-electric infrastructure that runs on it. Fortunately, political momentum is now leaning strongly in this direction.
If we move fast to re-localize production and proceed with the renewable revolution, we could end the 21st century with a largely carbon-free economy, putting an end to climate change and averting resource wars. We would have healthier food and a safer, more resilient and equitable world.
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4.3.2. Global warming
Global warming refers to the gradual increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s surface and its atmosphere which has been attributed to the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor, nitrogen oxides (NOX) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). All the greenhouse gases except CFCs are naturally produced and their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing due to human activities.
CO2 is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for more than 50 percent of the global temperature rise. This has occurred because of the burning of fossil fuels and wood products. Notwithstanding the increase in the levels of CO2, there is continuing loss of the world’s forests that serve as CO2 sinks (green plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere). Through the process called photosynthesis, green plants constantly remove CO2 from the atmosphere and combine it with water vapor in the presence of sunlight, to produce carbohydrates and oxygen: 6 CO2 + 6H2O + Sunlight ‘ C6H12O6 + 6 O2’
Methane may be produced naturally when wet organic matter decomposes under bacteria action in the absence of oxygen. Such decomposition could take place in landfills, swampy/paddy fields, digestive tracks of ruminants and termites and septic tanks. Man induced methane emissions may come from leaks in natural gas distribution systems, leaks of refinery gases in petroleum reefing and coal mining.
The burning of fossil fuels also produces significant amounts of nitrous oxides. During the burning of fossil fuels, nitrogen in the air combines with oxygen at high temperatures to produce nitrous oxides: N + O2 ‘ NOX
The effects of global warming include the following:
‘ Rise in mean (average) global temperature
‘ Rising sea levels
‘ Occurrence of weather extremes
‘ Shifting of vegetative zones
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4.3.3. Energy security
The standard definition explain energy security as ‘the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price’. Energy security has many dimensions: long-term energy security mainly deals with timely investments to supply energy in line with economic developments and sustainable environmental needs. Short-term energy security focuses on the ability of the energy system to react promptly to sudden changes within the supply-demand balance. Lack of energy security is thus linked to the negative economic and social impacts of either physical unavailability of energy, or prices that are not competitive or are overly volatile. In cases such as the international oil market, where prices are allowed to adjust in response to changes in supply and demand, the risk of physical unavailability is limited to extreme events. Supply security concerns are primarily related to the economic damage caused by extreme price spikes. The concern for physical unavailability of supply is more prevalent in energy markets where transmission systems must be kept in constant balance, such as electricity and, to some extent, natural gas. This is particularly the case in instances where there are capacity constraints or where prices are not able to work as an adjustment mechanism to balance supply and demand in the short term. Ensuring energy security has been at the center of the mission of the nations since its inception. The ability to respond collectively in the case of a serious oil supply disruption with short-term emergency response measures remains one of the core activities. The long-term aspect of energy security was also included in national objectives, which called for promoting alternative energy sources in order to reduce import dependency. The nations should continue to work to improve energy security over the longer term by promoting energy policies that encourage diversification, both of energy types and supply sources, and that facilitate better functioning and more integrated energy markets.
4.3.4. Protection of critical infrastructure
Critical infrastructures are those facilities with role important in ensuring security in the operation and in developing the economic, social, political, informational and military.
Infrastructures are considered critical because:
– unique condition in the infrastructure of system or process;
– vital importance that we have as a support material or virtual (network), in the operation and work flows economic, social, political, informational, military, etc;
– important role irreplaceable, they meet the stability, reliability, security, functionality and especially in security systems;
– greater vulnerability to direct threats, such as and the targeting systems of which they part;
– particular sensitivity to changing conditions, and more especially sudden changes of situation.
If the first studies in the field have identified objectives deemed “critical”, since the 80s, the term “critical infrastructure” was used officially in July 1996, when the US president decreed “Executive Order for Critical Infrastructure Protection”. The preamble to the bill explains that the notion of critical infrastructure as “part of the national infrastructure that is so vital that destruction or making them incapable of functioning can seriously diminish or defend the US economy.” It is believed that it comprises: telecommunications, electricity system and water supply, gas and oil deposits, finance and banks, emergency services (medical, police and fire) and the continuity of government.
Critical infrastructures are or become due, primarily their vulnerability to those threats which directly concerns them or against systems, actions and processes to which they belong.
Threats to critical infrastructure are conditional fostered and facilitated at least three very important factors:
– lack of flexibility, given the fixed nature and relatively precise location infrastructure, including critical;
– flexibility, fluidity, perversity dangers and threats to critical infrastructure and very broad spectrum of their manifestations;
– unpredictable and surprising nature of hazards and threats to critical infrastructure.
Also, dangers and threats to critical infrastructure can be grouped based on the location of these facilities, for the manifestation of the scope, how they emerge and develop etc.
Some of these dangers and threats are part of the nature of things, there are dangers and threats of system or process, as a result of malfunctions or a product of evolution systems and processes. Others are caused intentionally, due to certain interests, the permanent and ruthless battle for power and influence, for resources, markets and money.
We believe that the dangers and threats to critical infrastructure could be grouped as follows:
– cosmic dangers and threats, climatic and geophysical studies;
– dangers and threats resulting from human activity;
– dangers and threats against critical infrastructures in cyberspace.
An energy system can be found in functionally in one of the following states: normal operation, alarm-fault incident and restitution.
In most of the time energy system is able to operate in normal conditions (steady). In this operation attention is paid to economic operation and an operation to successfully cope with major incidents reduced.
Alarm operating mode is characterized in that for any incidents or damage that is detected (exit accidental operation of a group of energetic high power, triggering a power transmission lines etc.) is taking action by turning in reserve groups shifts in the pattern of electrical networks, etc.
The operating mode of failure is characterized by the occurrence of an incident primary or damage (triggering a power transmission lines leading to significant changes in power flow and voltage values) in such situations energy system must have the necessary reserves (starts groups of reserves – oil hydroelectric and thermal power plants – changes the configuration of the grid system) to successfully cope with these phenomena (static and dynamic stability reserves).
Usually incident primary scale is followed by incidents associated (tripping of power lines and energy groups, variations of power transmission lines and energy units) after which energy system is taxed to the utmost in terms of stability static or dynamic.
Follow state of restoration, where the situation when the power system has successfully coped with requests, the reinstatement lines and energy groups triggered where there were no failures, and when the power system went out of service, recover first connects the important parts of the energy system in parallel with a special power plants and major thoroughfares, then reapplied running (parallel) all networks and stations, being supplied with the importance of their consumers and after system possibilities.
Usual, production and distribution networks for electricity are (but not limited) consisting of power distribution subsystems, systems and command and control networks for data transmission interconnection required for operation
Regionally, most often, these networks are interconnected, providing, in addition to economic exchanges between countries, regional and redundancy required for operation.
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Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) requires a continuous partnership and coherence between owners of critical infrastructure, the personnel operating them or managing them and the state authorities concerned and the Member States of the European Union (regional) or all states (where it critical infrastructure value and global importance, such as, for example, which provides air transport infrastructure protection, the communication and information networks etc.).
Obviously, the primary responsibility to protect those infrastructures (physical facilities, supply routes, information technologies, communication networks) are the owners and staff serving them.
There is a rich national, European and international referring to the operation and protection of critical infrastructure and the required control. For example, inspections carried out under EURATM treaty aimed at ensuring good conditions for use and safe operation of nuclear materials.
It was also created a European Agency responsible for Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA). The main objective of this Agency is securing electronic communications.
4.3.5. Rising oil prices
Crude oil prices are set globally through the daily interactions of thousands of buyers and sellers in both physical and futures markets, and reflect participants’ knowledge and expectations of demand and supply.
In addition to economic growth and geopolitical risks, other factors, including weather events, inventories, exchange rates, investments, spare capacity, OPEC production decisions, and non-OPEC supply growth all figure into the price of crude oil.
The biggest long-term factor in the oil price is the cost of replacing oil wells as they run out (‘deplete’ in industry parlance). The international oil companies have slashed their long-term capital expenditure. Projects in Canada’s oil sands, in deep-water and Arctic oil fields, look worryingly costly. But the finding and developing (F&D) cost of new reserves is falling, not rising, thanks to America’s frackers. The median F&D cost per barrel of their ‘light tight’ oil is just $24, reckons Macquarie, a bank. The worldwide average in recent years was over $30. Moreover, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Libya have plenty of low-cost oil left to pump. For now those countries are chasing market share, rather than trying to raise prices by curtailing output. The other relevant factor is demand. The use of fossil fuels in the rich world is mostly stagnant or falling. Emerging economies are not currently taking up the slack.
Figure 15
Peak oil is the period when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. It relates to a long-term decline in the available supply of petroleum. This, combined with increasing demand, will significantly increase the worldwide prices of petroleum derived products. Most significant will be the availability and price of liquid fuel for transportation.
The US Department of Energy in the Hirsch report indicates that ‘The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past ‘energy crisis’ experience will provide relatively little guidance.’
Estimates of remaining proven reserves of oil and NGLs range from about 1.2 to 1.3 trillion barrels (including about 0,2 trillion barrels of non-conventional oil). They have almost doubled since 1980. This is enough to supply the world with oil for over 40 years at current rates of consumption.
Though most of the increase in reserves has come from revisions made in the 1980s in OPEC countries rather than from new discoveries, modest increases have continued since 1990, despite rising consumption. The volume of oil discovered each year on average has been higher since 2000 than in the 1990s, thanks to increased exploration activity and improvements in technology, though production continues to outstrip discoveries (despite some big recent finds, such as in deep water offshore Brazil).
Ultimately recoverable conventional oil resources, which include initial proven and probable reserves from discovered fields, reserves growth and oil that has yet to be found, are estimated at 3.5 trillion barrels. Only a third of this total, or 1.1 trillion barrels, has been produced up to now. Undiscovered resources account for about a third of the remaining recoverable oil, the largest volumes of which are thought to lie in the Middle East, Russia and the Caspian region. Non-conventional oil resources, which have been barely developed to date, are also very large. Between 1 and 2 trillion barrels of oil sands and extra-heavy oil may be ultimately recoverable economically. These resources are largely concentrated in Canada (mainly in Alberta province) and Venezuela (in the Orinoco Belt). The total long-term potentially recoverable oil-resource base, including extra-heavy oil, oil sands and oil shales (another largely undeveloped, though costly resource), is estimated at around 6.5 trillion barrels.
Figure 16
5. Discussion and conclusions
The continuing economic slump puts a focus on the role of energy in the economy. The energy industry fuels the economy, and steady availability of reasonably priced energy is a crucial to economic growth.
Notable advances in conventional energy production ‘ including the rapid growth of offshore and, more recently, shale gas and tight oil ‘ are creating new possibilities that may be very important for national economies. Advances in renewable technologies, such as offshore wind and solar PV, are also adding jobs and boosting economic growth. Regardless of their energy endowments, countries are turning to renewables and green technology as sound investments. Particularly in developing nations, reliable and affordable energy supplies are crucial. Unreliable electricity takes a heavy toll on GDP. Bridging the supply gap offers a major development opportunity. Investment and innovation clusters around renewable energy are bringing about advances in related technologies and providing solutions to environmental and energy security problems.
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