Introduction:
Western Port Bay, is a large bay in the south of Victoria in Australia that opens into the Bass Strait, and it is the second largest bay in the state. It is also the most southern in which mangroves can be found in Australia. The bay struggles with the effects of climate change as it’s surface elevation is zero metres about sea level. This means that rising sea levels can have damaging effects along the coastline. On the 10th of May the Hazards and Disasters geography class headed to Westernport on an excursion where we measured the height of mangroves, the distance from each mangrove to the transect line and the distance from each mangrove to the start of the transect. Whilst on the excursion we were asked to think about our research question, which was “What are the social, economic and environmental impacts climate change has on the Westernport bay’’. With this in mind we collected notes and data throughout the day to assist in answering this question.
Method:
Primary source:
Our class measured mangroves in order to determine the height and placement of mangroves in Westernport, which we did with the use of measuring tapes. Along with a transect line we measured the distance from the mangroves to where boats used to be dragged up to shore, therefore destroying the mangroves. A transect line was also used to measure the distance from each mangrove to the top of the transect.The reason we measured the mangroves was to collect data in order to compare it to data that will be collected in the future, so the data didn’t tell us much in terms of the pattern of mangroves over time, however it did inform us of patterns showing us that closer to the water, the smaller the mangroves. This is evidence that shows us that the more powerful waves washing over the mangroves due to climate change are dumping sediment on the mangroves, making it increasingly difficult for them to grow, hence why mangroves further from the shore are larger. The data presents to us the environmental effects climate change is having on the mangroves.
Secondary sources
Our class walked along the coast of Jack’s beach and received information about how climate change would effect the area’s plants such as mangroves and salt marsh, which are vital to the ecosystem, and the further impacts of this on the environment. Our class also listened to a talk at the Dolphin Research Institute by a man named Jeff, who told us about how climate change is currently affecting, and will continue to effect Hastings and Westernport Bay.
Results
Discussion:
Environmental effects of climate change
Climate Change will have a direct dramatic impact on the environment of Westernport Bay, affecting temperature, precipitation, humidity and bushfires along with other extreme weather events. The current climate in Western Port is mild, with average maximum summer temperatures of around 21 to 24°C near the coast, and 23 to 25°C inland. In the Western Port area, temperature is predicted to increase between 0.2 and 1.4°C by 2030 and 0.7 to 4.3°C by 2070. The winter average maximum temperature is usually in the range of 12 to 14°C – frosts occur but are rare in urban areas and near the coast. The average rainfall annually is around 700-900mm along the coastal and urbanised areas and around 1500mm in the elevated areas in the far north- east of the region. Rainfall will increase by 3% by 2030, and 9% by 2070. Not only will climate and precipitation be affected, but humidity will be affected as well. The number of hot, humid summer days is predicted to increase dramatically in the next 10 years, (A hot summer day meaning a temperature about 35 degrees Celsius) between 20-300%. Climate change may increase fire danger as well, and higher amounts of litter could potentially make fires more intense and difficult to control. More frequent and intense fires could change hydrological characteristics of catchments, and lead to erosion, water quality problems, and invasions by pests and weeds. Droughts will become a more frequent occurrence, and they will last much longer. Dry conditions that currently occur on average one in every four years may increase to up to one in three years by 2030, and due to hotter conditions, droughts are also likely to be become more intense as well. Wind will intensify in Westernport too, it will intensify in coastal regions of Victoria, particularly in winter as a result of more intense low pressure systems.
Economic effects of climate change
There are more than 55,000 private businesses registered in the Western Port region, with property and business services and construction being the major businesses, followed by retail trade. Due to many of the businesses in the Westernport region are small or very small, there is a natural inclination to consider long term climate change to be of little relevance or significance to most of these businesses and the overall regional economy. For some businesses, the connections between climate change and business success are heavily apparent, since many of their activities are already sensitive to climate extremes and climate variability. These businesses are climate dependent. Most primary industries including agriculture, aquaculture and fisheries fall into this category. Tourism is also likely to be affected, as it is a prominent industry in the Westernport region. Visitors go boating, penguin watching and fishing – which all rely heavily on a certain climate.
Social effects of climate change
Climate change in the region is likely to have damaging implications for people’s quality of life, both negative and positive, and lead to lifestyle changes. Although it is not yet clear how these changes will unfold, research has been undertaken, in Australia and internationally, to indicate the potential for major quality of life effects, especially for some groups in the community. With the increase of severe weather events over the next decades, effects will become much more destructive. There will most likely be an increase in the number of temperature-related deaths, with an increase in heat- related deaths outweighing a reduction in cold-related deaths, an increased risk of flood-related deaths and injuries, if there is an increase in extreme rainfall events,
an increase in the prevalence of food- and water-borne disease (associated with higher temperatures and also with reduced coastal water quality) and increased exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation, which can be linked to people spending more time at the beach due to the warmer climate that climate change will bring. Climate change will also affect people of a lower income, as energy and water prices will likely increase as weather gets more extreme. Westernport has a higher than average percentage of people with a low income in their community.
Conclusion
We can conclude from our fieldwork that climate change will indeed affect Westernport in the future socially, economically and environmentally. Effects will most likely be severe, with the increase in climate. People will be affected in all different ways – whether it be there job or business that’s affected, or their health. Mangroves are vital in the protection of Westernport, they stabilise the coastline and prevent erosion from waves and storms. In areas where mangroves have been cleared, severe storms are more likely to have damaging effects, so it’s safe to say that they are really important in protecting our environment. We can learn from this investigation that the measurements our class recorded of the mangroves taught us some quite valuable information as to how the effects of climate change will impact Westernport bay.
References