The effects of climate change in the area of the Himalayas are anything but mild. As temperatures rise, glaciers melt and retreat in the mountains. The glaciers in this area are receding quicker than many others found in other parts of the world. Landsat satellites have documented an increase in the number and average size of glacial lakes throughout the Himalayan range (NASA, 2017). Reports suggest that the world’s tallest peaks could reduce their volume by 70%-99% by 2100 (Vidal, 2015). Joseph Shea, a glacier hydrologist from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Nepal states “The signal of future glacial change in the region is clear: continued and possibly accelerated mass loss from glaciers is likely, given the projected increase in temperatures” (Vidal, 2015). This serves a real issue to people who rely on the Himalayan rivers for drinking water, farming, and hydroelectric power.
The Himalayan glaciers are regionally known as the “Water Towers of Asia.” Besides the icecaps, these “Water Towers” are the largest ice body that supplies water through runoff to the Indus River in Pakistan, the Brahmaputra that flows through Bangladesh, the Mekong that stretches throughout Southeast Asia just to name a few (Malhotra, 2009). Over one billion people in Asia depend on these rivers for food and livelihood (Vidal, 2015). Dr. Vandana Shiva, an environmental activist, recently conducted research in the Himalayas to study the effect of climate change and melting glaciers in the Asian communities. Her research found that flooding is a major possibility. Flash floods have been occurring more frequently and wiping out small villages like Ladakh.
In addition, climate change in this area has worsened the rate of “Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).” GLOFs are a type of flash flood. Effects of these floods include lives lost, poverty in the area, loss of fertile lands, forced migration and environmental degradation. In the past GLOFs have caused major damage in the past. In 1981 the moraine ridge of Zhangzangbo (a glacier lake in Tibet) collapsed and released right around 20 million cubic meters of floodwater across the border to Nepal. In its path this GLOF devastated the Sunkoshi hydro dam (Qiu, 2016). However, these effects aren’t confined to just these certain areas. The overflow of the rivers could cross borders with countries that previously have had tension between them. For example, the Indus, Jhelum, Ravi, Bias, and Sutlej rivers are shared between the countries of India and Pakistan. These two countries have been in conflict with each other since 1947 (Malhotra, 2009). Both countries want to acquire the waters for hydroelectric power projects, and initial melting will provide enough water for both sides, the loss of the glaciers may lead to shortages and future conflict over what is left. According to Wendy Barnaby, Editor of People and Science Magazine, “the United Nations issues a warning February of this year that climate change harbors the potential for serious conflicts over water” (Malhotra, 2009). Furthermore, conflicts over water have been observed in other parts of the world such as the West Bank and Darfur. It is inevitable that the situation amongst India and China will result in increased security problems as water levels reduces and demands deepens. Currently there is uncertainty about how much affect greenhouse gasses will have on the overall temperature, snowfall, and rainfall. Only a small amount of the region of the region’s glaciers have been measured in detail.
As stated before, the glacial floods are expected to cause problems in the hydroelectric power projects. An estimated one in five dams in the area are expected to receive and crushing floods. This is because of the failure and lack of “rock embankments” that impound glacier lakes. The dams are moving higher up the Himalayan valleys to meet the demand for power yet, moving higher up makes the dams more vulnerable to GLOFs. Research in the past has only looked at case studies of individual dams. However, it’s not as useful as it does not show a “big-picture” analysis of the risks of the floods. Wolfgang Schwanghart, a geologist at the University of Potsdam in Germany, led the above analysis. While conducting their research, many of the team member where surprised by the high volume of dams with very little space between each one. Schwanghart states “In some places there is a dam every 30 kilometers or so along the river,” (Qiu, 2016). The team wanted to assess how much floodwater may pour out of the lakes should any of the dams fail and how far the water may travel. Estimated volumes varied by 100-fold because of many uncertain factors. These factors included lake depth, breach depth and rate. For the 56 dams studied, the limit of water they are built to withstand can be easily exceeded by the GLOFs. The research concluded that the plans for these dams don’t take GLOFs into consideration when being built, so they are almost rendered useless in the event of a GLOF. However, one aspect Schwanghart’s study didn’t account for was climate change, which results in worse off results of GLOFs (Qiu, 2016). As the earth continues to heat, the glaciers will continue to melt into the lakes, which will result in a Glacier Lake Outburst Floods.
To summarize, developers must pay close attention to the glacial runoff into the lakes that make their way to the dams. In the event of a Glacier Lake Outburst Flood, it will damage the economy, livelihood of the citizens in the surrounding areas, and destroy the future hope of hydroelectric power.