In the United States, climate change can create a great debate based on public opinion, leadership, and policy. There is extensive scientific research stating that anthropogenic activities have been responsible for a temperature increase over the past century (Oreskes, 2004), but the way people perceive climate change shapes their response to this global crisis. This, in turn, plays an increasingly important role in developing environmental policy and management response systems (Brody et al., 2008). Thus, the question arises, how do people perceive climate change so as to entice a response that is accurate to the global vulnerability? Upon understanding the wider, global phenomenon of climate change, and connecting that vulnerability factor to the people in the U.S., environmentalists can be better equipped to address the issue.
The Reality of Climate Change
Over the past century, climate change has significantly increased in magnitude, causing numerous negative effects on the Earth and society. Ice caps are melting, sea levels are rising, and the oceans and atmosphere are continuing to rise in temperature (Shaftel, Holly. “How”). According to the World Health Organization, it is predicted that, “between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress” (“Climate Change and”). Another study found “that 15% to 37% of species could be driven extinct between now and 2050 assuming moderate climate warming” (Randerson), which would mean the loss of more than 1 million species. These many consequences are simply a result of three main factors: the increase in global atmospheric and oceanic temperatures, and the rise in sea level.
Rising Atmospheric Temperatures
Earth’s atmospheric temperatures are rising fast as shown by a temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The results show that the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8° Celsius (1.4° Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of this warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of around 0.15-0.20°C per decade. According to NASA, even a one-degree global change is significant because it takes a large amount of heat to warm all the oceans, atmosphere, and land by that amount. In the past, it only took a one- to two-degree drop to cause the Little Ice Age, and as little as a five-degree drop to bury a large part of North America under massive ice 20,000 years ago (Przyborski and Levy).
Higher temperatures, as well as a decrease in soil moisture, which only causes worse heat waves, are projected for much of the western and central U.S. in summer (Bradford). By the year 2100, extreme heat days that would have been rare occurrences happening once every twenty years (one-day events), are projected to occur every two or three years over most of the United States (Shaftel, Holly. “How”).
Oceanic Temperature Increases
There has not only been a change in atmospheric temperatures, but in oceanic temperatures as well. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, sea surface temperature mainly increased during the 20th century and now continues to rise. From 1901 through 2015, sea temperature rose at an average rate of 0.13°F per decade. Sea surface temperature has also been consistently higher during the past three decades than at any other time since 1880 (“Climate Change Indicators”), which just shows how climate change is affecting the Earth now more than ever.
The rise in global oceanic temperatures has also contributed to the critical loss of Arctic glaciers and sea ice. Since 1978, the minimum Arctic sea ice extent has decreased by more than 40%. Ice thickness has also decreased by more than 50% from 1958-1976 to 2003-2008, and the percentage of the March ice cover which is made up of thicker ice that has survived a summer melt season, decreased from 75% in the mid-1980s to 45% in 2011 (Walsh). These statistics and projections indicate that there’s a high possibility that the Arctic Ocean will become almost essentially ice-free in summer by mid-century under the assumption of continued growth in global emissions and temperatures.
Sea Level Rise
The combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of seawater as it warms has further contributed to sea level increase. Sea level has been rising over the past century, and the rate has increased in recent decades. The average rate of sea level increase has been about one-eighth of an inch (3.1 millimeters) per year since 1993. In 2017, the global mean sea level was 3 inches (77 millimeters) above the 1993 average, which was the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present). Research has found that 2017 was “the sixth consecutive year, and the 22nd out of the last 24 years in which global mean sea level increased relative to the previous year” (Lindsey).
This dangerous increase in sea level can lead to tremendous disasters for society, such as more flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. In the United States, roughly 130 million people or around 40% of the population (“What”), live in relatively high population-density coastal areas which puts a large number of people at risk for natural disasters. Globally, 8 of the world’s 10 largest cities are near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans (Lindsey).
Public Perception of Climate Change
Due to the diversity in socio-demographics, geography, climate, and risk management abilities, people around the world experience the effects of climate change in drastically different ways. Large populations of people in developed countries, like the U.S., are detached from the effects of climate change on a day-to-day basis, and thus fail to fully acknowledge the risks. ‘‘Even though the U.S. has the highest carbon emissions per capita, it is amongst the least concerned about climate change and its potential impact’’ (PEW Research). On the other hand, people in ‘‘Africa, Latin America, and Asia are frequently the most concerned about the negative effects of climate change, even though their countries have very low emissions per capita’’ (PEW Research). Perhaps this is because people in these countries are more likely to see and experience the changes firsthand and on a day-to-day basis.
When the relationship between physical vulnerability and public perception of global climate change was surveyed, ‘‘people around the world appear to register climate change risk when the threat or sense of vulnerability is most overt’’ (Brody et al., 2008). This can be seen in communities that live by the coastlines and/or in low elevation areas of the world, and are exposed to the threats of sea level rise. ‘‘Americans closest to the coast and the most vulnerable to inundation perceive the greatest personal risk from climate change as sea level rises’’ (Bell, 1994a; Kempton, 1991). Since ‘‘physical position and proximity characteristics lend themselves to increased public perceptions of the potential negative impacts of climate change,’’ decision makers can spatially target policies toward people in areas of these particular risks (Brody et al., 2008).
Socioeconomic Factors and Risk Perception
The survey also discovered that socioeconomic and attitudinal control variables are more readily perceived by people in comparison to physical vulnerabilities. For example, ‘‘personal efficacy is one of the strongest predictors’’ for risk perception associated with climate change. There was a corresponding correlation between increased efficacy and increased risk perception. ‘‘If an individual’s perception of risk depends on the belief that he or she can influence climate change outcomes, then public officials may benefit by more effectively engaging the public in the policy-making process’’ (Brody et al., 2008). Public participation fosters increased ownership over environmental problems and leads to a greater sense of responsibility for mitigating adverse impacts.
Education and Communication
Less blatant risk signals such as long-term temperature change appear more difficult for the public to see and understand clearly. Equally legitimate risks such as increased property damage from climatic events, increasing temperature trends, and residing in the 100-year floodplain do not appear to affect levels of risk perception at a considerable level. In fact, respondents located within the 100-year floodplain where flood damage and loss of life is more likely, where increased precipitation and coastal storms are expected, perceive a significantly lower risk associated with climate change. Increased education programs and communication to the public of the precise causes and consequences of climate change at geographically precise levels may help the public become more sensitive to a broader range of physical vulnerability characteristics.
Conclusion
The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action. By better understanding the scope and severity of impacts associated with climate change, the public’s perception of the risk may be more congruent with the conditions of the local environment. Public involvement related to climate change may also strengthen the social network attached to this issue, thereby broadening risk perceptions. Public participation usually involves information sharing, education, communication, and discussion about a problem. This process can facilitate network interest which, based on our results, may increase public recognition of the severity and geographic impacts of potential climate change.