The 1992 United Kingdom general election is often remembered not just for the victory of the Conservative Party under John Major but also for the significant polling errors that preceded it. Pre-election polls had consistently suggested a close race, with some even predicting a Labour victory. However, the actual result saw the Conservatives winning a clear majority. This essay explores why the polls got it wrong in 1992, examining methodological issues, voter behavior, and broader political contexts, supported by academic theories and empirical evidence.
Methodological Issues in Polling
Polling is a complex process that relies on various methodologies to predict election outcomes. In 1992, several methodological issues contributed to the inaccuracies in polling predictions.
Sampling Errors
One fundamental aspect of polling is the sample selection process. Polls are based on the responses of a sample of the population, which should ideally reflect the broader electorate. However, in 1992, many polls suffered from sampling errors. Polling organizations often used quota sampling, which can be prone to biases if the quotas are not representative of the voting population.
Weighting and Adjustments
Weighting is a technique used to adjust the sample to better reflect the demographics of the electorate. In 1992, some polls may have been inadequately weighted, failing to account for differences in voter turnout among various demographic groups. For instance, younger voters and lower-income groups, who were more likely to support Labour, often have lower turnout rates, which were not fully adjusted for in the polls.
Voter Behavior and Psychological Factors
Voter behavior is influenced by various psychological and sociological factors that can complicate polling accuracy.
The “Shy Tory” Factor
One of the most discussed reasons for the polling inaccuracies in 1992 is the so-called “Shy Tory” factor. This phenomenon suggests that some Conservative voters were reluctant to disclose their true voting intentions to pollsters, possibly due to social desirability bias. Social desirability bias occurs when respondents provide answers they believe are more socially acceptable or favorable rather than their true beliefs or intentions.
John Curtice and Richard Rose (1995) argue that the “Shy Tory” effect significantly impacted polling accuracy in 1992. They suggest that Conservative supporters were less likely to admit their voting intentions due to the negative media portrayal of the party and its policies at the time.
Late Swing
Another behavioral factor is the concept of the late swing, where a significant number of voters make their final decision in the last days before the election. This can result in a discrepancy between polling predictions and actual results if the late swing is not captured. In 1992, there was evidence of a late swing towards the Conservatives, which many polls conducted days before the election failed to detect.
Political Context and Campaign Dynamics
The broader political context and the dynamics of the election campaign also played crucial roles in the polling errors of 1992.
Economic Factors
Economic conditions significantly influence voter behavior. The early 1990s were marked by economic recession and high unemployment in the UK, which typically would have disadvantaged the incumbent Conservative government. However, the Conservative campaign effectively communicated economic recovery prospects and leveraged concerns about Labour’s economic competence.
Leadership and Campaign Strategies
Leadership perceptions and campaign strategies were critical in shaping voter intentions. John Major’s campaign, characterized by his “soapbox” politics, where he delivered speeches from a literal soapbox, was perceived as more authentic and connected with ordinary voters. In contrast, Labour’s Neil Kinnock faced criticism for being overconfident and out of touch, particularly after the Sheffield Rally, which many saw as premature celebration.
Academic Theories and Models
Several academic theories and models help explain why the polls were inaccurate in 1992.
Rational Choice Theory
Rational choice theory posits that individuals make political decisions based on a rational evaluation of costs and benefits. Voters are assumed to support the party that offers them the greatest utility. In 1992, rational choice theory can explain why some voters, despite being dissatisfied with the Conservative government, ultimately chose to support them due to concerns about Labour’s economic policies.
Prospect Theory
Prospect theory, developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, suggests that individuals are more likely to take risks when they perceive themselves to be in a loss situation. Applying this to the 1992 election, voters facing economic uncertainty may have preferred the perceived safety of the incumbent government over the risks associated with a change in leadership.
Empirical Evidence and Post-Election Analyses
Post-election analyses provide further insights into the polling errors of 1992.
British Election Study (BES)
The British Election Study (BES) provides comprehensive data on voter behavior and attitudes. Analysis of BES data from 1992 indicates that differential turnout was a significant factor. Higher turnout among Conservative voters compared to Labour supporters contributed to the discrepancy between polling predictions and actual results.
Post-Election Polling
Post-election polling and studies revealed that many respondents did not accurately report their voting intentions even after the election. This supports the existence of the “Shy Tory” factor, as respondents continued to underreport Conservative support.
Lessons Learned and Methodological Improvements
The polling errors of 1992 led to significant methodological improvements in polling practices.
Improved Sampling Techniques
Polling organizations have since adopted more sophisticated sampling techniques, including random sampling and stratified sampling, to better represent the electorate. These techniques reduce biases and improve the accuracy of polling predictions.
Enhanced Weighting Procedures
Weighting procedures have been refined to account for differential turnout and demographic variations more accurately. Pollsters now use more detailed demographic data and voter turnout models to adjust their samples.
Incorporating Behavioral Insights
Modern polling incorporates insights from behavioral science to understand better and predict voter behavior. This includes considering factors such as social desirability bias and late swings. Polling organizations now conduct more frequent and closer-to-election-day polls to capture late shifts in voter intentions.
Conclusion
The 1992 UK general election remains a pivotal case study in polling inaccuracies. Methodological issues such as sampling errors and inadequate weighting, combined with psychological factors like the “Shy Tory” phenomenon and late swings, contributed to the polling errors. The broader political context, including economic conditions and campaign dynamics, also played a crucial role.
Academic theories like rational choice theory and prospect theory provide frameworks for understanding voter behavior and decision-making processes that impacted the election outcome. Empirical evidence from post-election studies further supports these explanations.
The lessons learned from the 1992 polling errors have led to significant methodological advancements in polling practices, improving the accuracy and reliability of modern polls. As political landscapes and voter behaviors continue to evolve, ongoing refinement and adaptation of polling methodologies will be essential to accurately predict election outcomes and understand public opinion dynamics.